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农产品早报-20250717
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-07-17 13:10

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For corn, recent reserve auctions of imported corn have increased market supply slightly, easing the previous tense market sentiment and leading some grain - using enterprises to lower purchase prices. In the short - term, the auctions aim to ease market tension rather than suppress prices, and the depletion of old - crop stocks still supports prices. In the long - term, the widening import profit may lead to increased imports and weaker far - month prices [1]. - For starch, some enterprises have raised the price of finished starch due to production losses this week. In the short - term, strong raw material prices support starch prices, but high industry inventory limits the rebound. In the long - term, the off - season consumption restricts price increases, and after a small profit repair, short the far - month contracts [2]. - For sugar, the Brazilian sugar market is in the peak crushing season, putting pressure on international sugar prices with support at the Brazilian ethanol price. The Brazilian sugar market has accumulated risks, and raw sugar has the power to rebound. The domestic sugar market follows the international one, but with a smaller amplitude. The upcoming large - scale arrival of imported sugar creates upward pressure on the futures market [3]. - For cotton, the rapid decline in cotton inventory drives up prices, but there is resistance from hedging and weak downstream demand. If demand worsens or there are macro risks, prices may fall; otherwise, they will fluctuate [6]. - For eggs, high - temperature and high - humidity weather in northern production areas in early July affected storage and transportation, causing the futures price to fall. As the weather clears, prices will enter a seasonal upward channel, but high inventory may limit the rebound [9]. - For apples, the apple bagging in each production area has ended. The new - crop output may not differ much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, with low inventory and slow de - stocking. Spot prices have risen, and seasonal fruits are squeezing the market share of apples [12]. - For pigs, the reduction in production capacity is limited, and long - term supply pressure remains. In the medium - term, price rebounds are not conducive to de - stocking. Futures prices are rising on expectations, but need to be verified by spot prices. Spot price rebounds face resistance, and factors like the slaughter rhythm, weather, and policies should be monitored [12]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Price Data: From July 10 - 16, the price in Changchun remained at 2230, in Jinzhou at 2300, and in Shekou at 2430. The price in Weifang increased by 20. The corn basis increased by 2, and the import profit decreased by 8. For starch, the processing profit decreased by 7 [1]. - Analysis: The supply has increased slightly due to reserve auctions, and prices may be supported in the short - term but face risks in the long - term. Starch prices are affected by raw material prices and inventory [1][2]. Sugar - Price Data: From July 10 - 16, the prices in Liuzhou and Nanning decreased by 10, and the basis decreased by 16. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 313 [3]. - Analysis: The Brazilian sugar market is in the peak season, and the domestic market follows with less volatility. Imported sugar arrival creates pressure on the domestic market [3]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - Price Data: From July 10 - 16, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 110, and the import profit decreased. The number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 73 [6]. - Analysis: The decline in inventory drives up prices, but downstream factors limit the increase [6]. Eggs - Price Data: From July 10 - 16, the price in Hubei increased by 0.07, and the basis increased by 50. The price of live pigs decreased by 0.13 [8]. - Analysis: Weather affected prices in early July, and seasonal factors may drive prices up, but high inventory may limit the rebound [9]. Apples - Price Data: From July 10 - 16, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8100. The national inventory increased by 16, Shandong inventory by 2, and Shaanxi inventory by 22 [12]. - Analysis: The new - crop output may be similar to last year, and consumption is in the off - season with slow de - stocking [12]. Pigs - Price Data: From July 10 - 16, the price in Henan Kaifeng decreased by 0.10, and the basis increased by 140 [12]. - Analysis: Long - term supply pressure remains, and price rebounds need to be verified by spot prices [12].