EIA数据点评：美国原油库存超预期下降，但汽油库存大幅累库

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The supply and demand sides of the US energy market have changed synchronously recently. Crude oil inventories have declined, ending three consecutive weeks of growth, while refinery processing volumes have continued to decline, and crude oil production and rig counts have steadily decreased, indicating weakening expansion momentum on the supply side. The refined oil market is differentiated, with gasoline demand seasonally falling and inventories rising, suggesting the end of the summer consumption peak, while distillate and diesel inventories, though increasing, remain at historically low levels, and the structurally tight pattern remains unchanged [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil Inventory and Supply - US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.86 million barrels to about 422 million barrels in the week ending July 11, the largest decline in nearly a month and the first drop in three weeks, exceeding market expectations and showing a divergence in market expectations [2]. - Cushing's crude oil inventory in Oklahoma slightly increased but remained at the lowest seasonal level since 2014, indicating a tight spot supply [2]. - Crude oil production fell to 13.375 million barrels per day last week, a decrease of 10,000 barrels from the previous week, and the number of oil well rigs has continued to decline for 11 consecutive weeks, reaching the lowest level since September 2021, suggesting further limitations on future crude oil production expansion [2]. 3.2 Refinery Processing - Refinery crude oil processing volumes have declined for the second consecutive week, falling below 17 million barrels per day, the lowest level since spring and lower than the seasonal level of the same period last year. Except for the East Coast, processing volumes in all PADD regions have decreased [3]. - Some refineries in certain regions have been affected by unexpected factors, which may further reduce processing volumes. For example, at least one major refinery on the Gulf Coast has cut operations due to crude oil quality issues, and refineries in the East Coast, Texas, and the Rocky Mountains are at risk of processing volumes falling below 17 million barrels per day due to power outages [3]. 3.3 Refined Oil Market - In the gasoline market, inventories rose to the highest level since April this week, increasing by 3.4 million barrels and approaching the four - year seasonal high. Demand fell below 9 million barrels per day for the first time since early June, and gasoline futures fell by about 1.5% on the day. Regionally, West Coast gasoline inventories rose to the highest level since early August, and East Coast inventories reached the highest level since early March [4]. - In the distillate and diesel markets, inventories increased by 4.17 million barrels in the week ending July 11, the third - largest increase on record in 2025, but still remained at a very low historical level. Demand was at the high end of the five - year seasonal range, and the increase in inventories was mainly due to a surge in imports and a decline in exports. Diesel inventories rose for the first time in four weeks to about 107 million barrels but remained at the lowest seasonal level since 1996 [4][5]. 3.4 Crude Oil Exports US crude oil exports are expected to continue to rise, exceeding 3 million barrels per day, but are not expected to exceed 3.5 million barrels per day. After the restart of a 200,000 - barrel - per - day crude oil unit at BP's Rotterdam refinery, exports may continue to increase [6].