原油成品油早报-20250717

Report Overview - The report is an early morning report on crude oil and refined oil, released by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on July 17, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. The month spreads of the three major crude oil markets were oscillating at high levels. Policy-wise, the US plans to impose new tariffs on over 20 countries starting August 1st, and other trading partners may face a 15% - 20% comprehensive tariff. OPEC+ is discussing a suspension of production increases from October. Fundamentally, global oil inventories increased this week. US oil drilling decreased by 1, while fracturing increased. Refinery profits in Europe and the US strengthened week-on-week. The supply - demand contradiction in European diesel was prominent. The fundamentals of gasoline and diesel in Asia and China were neutral, with accelerated inventory accumulation in China and a decline in refinery profits. In the peak refinery season, the month spreads of crude oil are expected to remain oscillating at high levels. WTI and Brent are stronger than the Dubai market. The absolute price faces downward pressure in the medium - term due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and tariff policies. The suspension of production increase by OPEC+ in the fourth quarter does not change the situation. Attention should be paid to non - OPEC production and the change slope of demand after the peak season [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - Crude Oil Prices: From July 10 - 16, 2025, WTI prices changed from $66.57 to $66.38 (a decrease of $0.14), BRENT from $68.64 to $68.52 (a decrease of $0.19), and DUBAI from $69.81 to $69.93 (an increase of $0.07) [3] - Product Prices: Domestic gasoline prices decreased by $30.00 from July 10 - 16, 2025. Japan's naphtha CFR price and related spreads also showed certain changes, and Singapore's fuel oil 380CST premium increased by 1.55 [3] 3.2 Daily News - US Shale Oil: As WTI prices hover around $65, US shale oil drillers are scaling back operations. The slowdown is considered temporary, but tariffs and uncertainties are suppressing drilling activities [3] - India's Oil Strategy: In the first half of 2025, India's crude oil imports from Russia increased by 1% to about 1.75 million barrels per day. However, the discount of Urals crude to Brent has narrowed to $1.70 - 2 per barrel. The EU is discussing the 18th round of sanctions on Russia, which may lower the price cap to $45 [4] - Saudi Arabia's Production Reporting: Saudi Arabia adopted a new measurement standard to report June's crude oil production, making it meet the quota requirements. Its actual production was 9.75 million barrels per day, while the "market supply" was 9.36 million barrels per day [4] - Iraq's Oil Production: Drone attacks in Iraqi Kurdistan reduced oil production by 140,000 - 150,000 barrels per day [4] 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - US Data: In the week of July 11, US crude oil exports increased by 761,000 barrels per day to 3.518 million barrels per day; domestic production decreased by 10,000 barrels to 13.375 million barrels per day; commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.859 million barrels to 422 million barrels (a 0.91% decrease); strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories decreased by 300,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels (a 0.07% decrease); commercial crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 366,000 barrels per day to 6.379 million barrels per day; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.262 million barrels per day, a 1.1% decrease from the same period last year [4][5] - China Data: This week, the operating rate of major refineries remained flat, and that of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. China's gasoline and diesel production both increased, with diesel inventory accumulation. The comprehensive profit of major refineries and local refineries decreased week - on - week [5]