有色早报-20250718

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The 50% tariff on copper imports announced by the US may not fully price in the CL spread in the short - term, and the low inventories in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand, and reverse spreads between distant months and inside - outside spreads can be considered under the low - inventory pattern [1]. - Zinc maintains a short - allocation idea, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended; long inside - outside spreads can be held, and attention can be paid to positive spreads between months [2]. - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are average, and opportunities for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [6]. - Stainless steel is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to weak fundamentals [10]. - Lead is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week, and attention should be paid to the terminal consumption destocking strength [12]. - Tin is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and short - term observation is recommended [14]. - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate if the start - up does not recover significantly in the short term [16]. - Carbonate lithium is expected to oscillate, and a downward inflection point requires significant accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot [18]. Summary by Metals Copper - Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports, and COMEX copper rose 16%. The US has imported over 860,000 tons of copper in 2025, filling the rigid import gap, so the 50% tariff may not be fully priced in the short - term. Attention should be paid to exemption situations. After the tariff is implemented, the low inventories in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1]. Aluminum - Supply increased slightly from January to May. In July, demand is expected to weaken seasonally, and supply and demand are expected to be balanced. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and reverse spreads [1]. Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply is expected to increase by over 5,000 tons in July. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is also weak. There is a risk of a short squeeze when LME inventory is below 100,000 tons. Short - allocation, long inside - outside spreads, and positive spreads between months are recommended [2]. Nickel - Pure nickel production remains high, and nickel bean imports increased in May. Demand is weak, and LME premium strengthened slightly. Overseas nickel plate inventory is stable, and domestic inventory decreased slightly. The worry about ore - end disturbances has eased, and attention can be paid to the contraction opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6]. Stainless Steel - Supply has been reduced passively since late May. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. Costs are stable. Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [10]. Lead - Lead prices declined slightly this week. Supply from scrap is weak, and demand from batteries is also weak. It is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week, and attention should be paid to terminal consumption destocking [12]. Tin - Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply may decline slightly in July - August due to low processing fees and upcoming maintenance. Demand from soldering tin is limited, and the growth of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to slow down. It is recommended to observe in the short term [14]. Industrial Silicon - The start - up changed little this week. Output is expected to decline in July and subsequent months, and the market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to destocking. It is expected to oscillate if the start - up does not recover significantly [16]. Carbonate Lithium - The futures price of carbonate lithium rebounded from a low level. Supply and demand are both strong in the short term, and inventory pressure is gradually accumulating. It is expected to oscillate, and a downward inflection point requires significant accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot [18].