建信期货集运指数日报-20250718

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Core View - The price increase in July was better than expected, and the SCFIS settlement index rebounded above 2400 points this week. The quotes in July changed little, with Maersk's quotes in the second half of July slightly higher than in the first half. The quotes of other airlines converged to $3300 - $3500. The 08 contract is still at a discount to the spot index and has room for repair. For the traditional off - season in October, pay attention to short - selling opportunities and positive spread arbitrage opportunities between 08 - 10 contracts [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The price increase in July was better than expected, and the SCFIS settlement index rose above 2400 points. Maersk's quotes in the second half of July were slightly higher than in the first half, and other airlines' quotes converged to $3300 - $3500. In August, few airlines have reported freight rates. HPL continued the late - July rate, and CMA CGM raised the rate by $800 compared to late July. The 08 contract is at a discount to the spot index and has repair space. In October, focus on short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread arbitrage opportunities [8] 2. Industry News - Overall Market: From July 7 to July 11, the China export container shipping market was generally stable, with freight rates rising and falling due to different supply - demand fundamentals of different routes. The comprehensive index declined slightly [9] - European Route: The eurozone's July SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5, better than expected. The index has risen for three consecutive months, indicating stable economic recovery. However, the EU - US tariff negotiation has no clear result, and the market faces uncertainty. The transport demand was stable, and the market freight rate was stable. On July 11, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $2099/TEU, down 0.1% from the previous period [9] - Mediterranean Route: The supply - demand fundamentals were weaker than the European route, and the spot booking price declined slightly. On July 11, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2667/TEU, down 7.0% from the previous period [9] - North American Route: The "tariff war" was the focus. Trump postponed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" to August 1. The US set new tariff rates for multiple countries and will impose a 50% tariff on copper. The transport demand was stable, and the market freight rate rebounded after adjustment. On July 11, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to US West and East basic ports were $2194/FEU and $4172/FEU, up 5.0% and 1.2% respectively from the previous period [9][10] - EU - US Trade Negotiation: The negotiation on EU - US trade is ongoing, with automobile and agricultural product tariffs being the key issues. Any agreement depends on Trump's decision and may be overturned by him. The US currently imposes 50% tariffs on EU steel and aluminum products, 25% on the automotive sector, and 10% on most other goods [10] - Trump's Tariff Plan: Trump plans to impose a unified tariff of 15% or 20% on almost all trading partners that have not been tariffed [10] - Yemen Houthi Armed Forces: The leader of the Yemen Houthi armed forces said that as long as Israel continues to invade and blockade Gaza, the armed forces will continue to ban ships related to Israel from passing through the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the Arabian Sea [10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - SCFIS: The European route index rose from 2258.04 to 2421.94, an increase of 7.3%. The US West route index fell from 1557.77 to 1266.59, a decrease of 18.7% [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - The trading data of multiple contracts such as EC2508, EC2510, etc. are provided, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Multiple charts are provided, including global container shipping capacity, global container ship order backlog, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, etc. [16][19]