建信期货豆粕日报-20250718

Report Overview - Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] Core View - If the weather is normal, the domestic soybean meal market will be treated as slightly bearish in a volatile pattern. If there are changes in the weather, there will be upward potential [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Quotes: For domestic soybean meal futures contracts, the prices of contracts such as 2601, 2509, and 2511 all rose, with increases ranging from 1.36% - 1.71%. The trading volume of the 2509 contract was 1,468,250, and the trading volume of the 2601 contract was 463,074. The external market of US soybean futures contracts was strong, with the main contract at 1020 cents [6] - External Market Factors: Last week, the external market was weak. Trump initiated a new round of trade disputes, which worried the market about the impact on US soybean exports. The growth of new - season US soybeans was smooth, with a growth excellent - good rate of 66% as of July 6, and only 9% of the area affected by drought. The 7 - month USDA report had limited impact, and the demand side was still highly variable [6] - Domestic Market Factors: Domestic soybean meal was relatively strong compared to the external market last week, with a rebound after bottom - grinding. Nationally, soybean meal was in a inventory - accumulation cycle, with a large number of Brazilian soybeans arriving at ports, and some oil mills reported full storage. However, downstream buyers were willing to make safety purchases at relatively low spot prices, providing some support. The upward elasticity mainly came from the transmission of CBOT soybean prices and US weather [6] 2. Industry News - USDA Export Sales Report Forecast: As of the week ending July 10, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 350,000 - 1,000,000 tons, with 200,000 - 600,000 tons in the 2024/25 season and 150,000 - 400,000 tons in the 2025/26 season. US soybean meal export sales are expected to increase by 200,000 - 700,000 tons, and US soybean oil export sales are expected to increase by 0 - 23,000 tons [7] 3. Data Overview - Renewable Fuel Credit Quotas: In June, the US ethanol (D6) blending credit quota was about 1.25 billion gallons, higher than 1.22 billion gallons in May. The biodiesel (D4) blending credit quota increased from 602 million gallons in the previous month to 629 million gallons in June [9]