建信期货生猪日报-20250718

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Currently, the group's pig出栏量 has recovered, and prices have continued to decline. From mid - to late July, large - scale pig - farming enterprises may increase their supply to meet monthly targets. With demand in the off - season, pig prices are likely to face further pressure. In the medium - to long - term, pig supply will increase, but anti - cut - throat competition initiatives and strengthened environmental protection policies are favorable for long - term pig prices. Attention should be paid to the impact of future policies on production capacity [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 17th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then bottomed out, rebounded, and fluctuated higher, closing with a positive candle. The highest price was 14,075 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,905 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,060 yuan/ton, a 0.28% decrease from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 4,275 lots to 160,859 lots [7]. - Spot Market: On the 17th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.28 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. - Demand Side: The price difference between fat and standard pigs slightly widened, and the utilization rate of pigsties increased, indicating higher enthusiasm for secondary fattening. Due to hot weather, terminal demand was weak, slaughterhouse orders were average, and farmers reduced the number of pigs for sale. The slaughter volume and operating rate of slaughterhouses remained low. On July 17th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 131,600 heads, a decrease of 10,000 heads from the previous day and 5,000 heads from a week ago [8]. - Supply Side: According to Yongyi data, the planned pig出栏量 of sample enterprises in July was 23.88 million heads, a 1.19% decrease from June. The出栏量 may be slightly adjusted down. In the early part of the month, enterprises temporarily held back pigs and reduced the number of pigs for sale, but now the出栏 progress has recovered. There are still secondary - fattened pigs to be sold in the future [8]. 2. Industry News - As of the week ending July 11, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 165 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 6 yuan/head; the average profit per pig from purchased piglets was - 44 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 58 yuan/head [9][11]. 3. Data Overview - The average market selling price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of July 10 was 539 yuan/head, an increase of 10 yuan/head from the previous week [19]. - In late June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 53.9%, a 9 - percentage - point increase from the previous ten - day period [19]. - In the week of July 10, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous week [19]. - As of the week ending July 11, the average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide was 129.03 kg, an increase of 0.39 kg from the previous week, a 0.30% increase [19].