贵金属日评-20250718

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The international trade and monetary system restructuring and reserve diversification demand will continue to support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's new policies and economic situation will support the medium - term bull market. However, the high price and P/E ratio lead to increased volatility, and the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's interest - rate cut in the third quarter should be noted. It is recommended that investors take a long - position approach with medium - low positions, and short - thinking traders can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunities [4][5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook - Intraday Quotes: Trump's criticism of Powell and the clarification of dismissal rumors, along with US PPI data, caused gold price fluctuations. Anti - involution expectations drove up silver prices. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted, with London gold expected to oscillate between $3120 - 3500 per ounce before rising again. This week, focus on China's Q2 GDP, June economic data, and US June inflation and consumption data [4]. - Domestic Precious Metals Quotes: Shanghai Gold Index closed at 777.12, down 0.02%; Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9174, up 0.18%; Gold T + D closed at 770.80, down 0.18%; Silver T + D closed at 9113, up 0.04% [5]. - Medium - term Quotes: Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - 3500 per ounce. International trade cooling and the US fiscal expansion bill weakened gold's demand, but Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks supported it. The gold - silver ratio has returned to pre - April levels. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - 3500 per ounce in the short term [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - Multiple charts are provided, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis to Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump said he doesn't plan to fire Powell but doesn't completely rule it out. Bloomberg's report of a possible dismissal caused market fluctuations [17]. - Trump mentioned maintaining Japan's tariff rates, being close to a trade deal with India, and the possibility of a deal with Europe, but it's too early to comment on the Canada deal [17]. - The EU is ready to impose tariffs worth 72 billion euros ($83.6 billion) on US goods if trade negotiations with the US fail [18]. - Canada will implement a tariff - quota system for countries with free - trade agreements (except the US) and impose a 25% additional tariff on steel imports containing Chinese - smelted and cast steel [18]. - US producer prices were unexpectedly flat in June, and weak service prices may create conditions for the Fed to cut interest rates later this year [18].