建信期货棉花日报-20250718

1. Report Information - Report Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton futures increased in volume and price, breaking through the upper resistance level. The latest price index of 328-grade cotton was 15,354 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The sales basis of 4129/29B/impurity 3.5 in northern Xinjiang was mostly above CF09+1500, and some were in the range of 1400-1500, but the quantity was gradually decreasing. The basis of machine-picked 31-grade double-29 cotton in Kashgar, southern Xinjiang, was mostly above CF09+1100, and the higher quotes were above CF09+1200, with the basis below 1200 continuing to decrease [7]. - The trading volume in the pure cotton yarn market remained stable, with a relatively weak atmosphere. The price of cotton yarn was stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream enterprises gradually digested the previous price increase. During the off-season, spinning mills continued to reduce production by lowering the operating rate to alleviate inventory pressure. The price of cotton grey fabric increased, with some small orders increasing and shorter delivery times, but the overall market remained weak with limited improvement. Currently, the inventory pressure of conventional products in weaving mills was still high, and actual orders were negotiated based on quantity [7]. - As of July 13, in the United States, the budding rate of cotton in 15 major cotton-growing states was 61%, 1 percentage point slower than the same period last year; the boll-setting rate was 23%, 3 percentage points slower than last year; and the good-to-excellent rate was 54%, 9 percentage points higher than last year. Although the overall growth progress was slightly slower, the good-to-excellent rate continued to rise, and there was still room for an increase in production. In the domestic market, the actual sown area increased year-on-year, and the expectation of a bumper harvest remained. Driven by the continuous rise in raw material prices, most downstream spinning mills maintained just-in-time procurement, and some large spinning mills made large-scale basis-locking purchases [8]. Operation Suggestions - The short-term resistance level of the futures market has been broken, opening up the upside space. However, the current strong rise does not represent a fundamental trend reversal but a phased rebound driven by capital, waiting for the release of bullish sentiment [8]. 3. Industry News - According to Xinjiang Xingnong Network, from July 15 to 21, most of the plain areas in Xinjiang will experience high temperatures above 37°C, with the highest temperatures in some areas reaching above 40°C and even above 45°C in Turpan and Hami. The peak of the high temperature will occur from July 19 to 20. Currently, most of the cotton in Xinjiang is in the flowering and boll-forming stage [9]. 4. Data Overview - The report includes various data charts, such as the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1-5 spread, CF5-9 spread, CF9-1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [18][19][21]