LPG早报-20250718

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No related content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PG market is mainly oscillating. The basis weakened slightly to 340 (-9), and the monthly spread also weakened slightly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4496. The import cost increased, and the external market price rose slightly. The domestic - foreign price difference weakened, and the US - Asia arbitrage window opened. This week, the arrivals increased, chemical demand decreased, combustion demand was average, and port inventory increased by 6.92%. Factory inventories were basically flat with regional differentiation. The PDH operating rate decreased to 60.87% (-3.12pct) but is expected to increase in the future. Overall, prices in Shandong and East China may rise due to chemical demand support, while the focus in South China is expected to move down due to weak combustion demand [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price and Market Data - On July 1, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, etc. were recorded, and there were corresponding daily changes. For example, the daily change of South China LPG was -50, and the daily change of Shandong LPG was 0. The 08 - 09 monthly spread was 93 at one point and then 86 (-11), and the 08 - 10 monthly spread was -332 (-38) [1] Market Conditions - FEI and CP followed the decline of crude oil, the CP discount was basically flat, PP oscillated, and the production profit of FEI - and CP - based PP improved. The CP production cost was lower than that of FEI. The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed [1] Fundamental Situation - This week, the arrivals increased, chemical demand decreased, combustion demand was average, and port inventory increased by 6.92%. Factory inventories were basically flat with regional differentiation. East China accumulated inventory due to typhoon weather and weak combustion terminal demand, while South China had weak supply - demand and factory destocking. The PDH operating rate decreased to 60.87% (-3.12pct), but it is expected to increase in the future as some enterprises are expected to resume or increase production. Gasoline terminal demand was poor, MTBE was weakly sorted, and combustion demand was weak. The number of registered warehouse receipts was 8304 (-10) [1]