原油成品油早报-20250718

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. The spreads of the three major crude oil markets remained high. Policy-wise, the US will impose new tariffs on over 20 countries starting August 1st, and other trading partners may face a 15% - 20% tariff. OPEC+ is discussing a suspension of production increases starting October. Fundamentally, global oil inventories increased this week. US refinery profits strengthened, and the supply - demand contradiction in European diesel was prominent. Asian and domestic gasoline and diesel fundamentals were neutral, with domestic gasoline and diesel inventory accumulation accelerating and refinery profits being eroded. In the peak refinery season, crude oil spreads are expected to remain high - oscillating. WTI and Brent are stronger than the Dubai market. The absolute price faces downward pressure in the medium - term due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and tariff policies. OPEC+ suspending production increases in the fourth quarter won't change the situation. Attention should be paid to non - OPEC production and the slope of demand change after the peak season [5]. 3. Summary by Related Directory 3.1 Oil Price Data - From July 11th to July 17th, WTI increased by $1.16 to $67.54, Brent by $1.00 to $69.52, and Dubai by $0.31 to $70.24. NYMEX RB increased by 2.64 to 217.04, and HO increased by 7.31 to 246.46. SC decreased by 0.60 to 516.80, and OMAN increased by 0.88 to 69.18. Japanese naphtha - BRT decreased by 13.98 to 63.78, and Singapore 380 - BRT had a change in the spread [3]. 3.2 Daily News - India's oil minister is confident in meeting India's oil demand if Russian oil supplies are affected by secondary sanctions. Russia's gasoline and diesel reserves are close to historical highs, ensuring domestic supply. Two of Iran's nuclear facilities damaged by the US have a relatively low damage level, and Trump rejected a more comprehensive military strike plan against Iran's nuclear program [3][4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - This week, the operating rate of major refineries remained flat, and that of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. China's gasoline and diesel production both increased, with diesel inventory accumulating. The comprehensive profits of major refineries and local refineries decreased month - on - month [4]. 3.4 EIA Report - For the week ending July 11th, US crude oil exports increased by 76.1 barrels per day to 351.8 barrels per day, domestic production decreased by 1.0 barrel to 1337.5 barrels per day. Commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 385.9 barrels to 422 million barrels, a 0.91% decrease. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 2026.2 barrels per day, a 1.1% decrease year - on - year. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory decreased by 30.0 barrels to 4027 million barrels, a 0.07% decrease. Crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 637.9 barrels per day, an increase of 36.6 barrels per day from the previous week [16].