大越期货天胶早报-20250718

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [1][2][4] Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with increasing supply, strong foreign spot prices, increasing domestic inventories, and high tire operating rates [4] - The basis is -115 with a spot price of 14,550, indicating a bearish signal [4] - The inventory shows a mixed picture, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreasing week - on - week and year - on - year, while the Qingdao area inventory increasing week - on - week and year - on - year, overall neutral [4] - The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - No specific content provided in the given text 2. Fundamental Data - Supply of natural rubber is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventory is rising, and tire operating rate is at a high level [4] - The 23 - year full - latex (non - deliverable) spot price rose on July 17 [8] - Import volume has a seasonal decline [20] - Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising [23][26] - Tire production is at a new high for the same period [29] - Tire industry exports are seasonally growing [32] 3. Base Difference - The spot price is 14,550, and the basis is - 115, showing a bearish situation [4] - The basis narrowed on July 17 [35] 4. Inventory - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory has not changed much recently [14] - The Qingdao area inventory has not changed much recently [17] 5. Long - Short Factors and Main Risk Points - Likely to Rise Factors: High downstream consumption, strong raw material prices, and resilient spot prices [6] - Likely to Fall Factors: Increasing supply and a bearish external environment [6]