大越期货纯碱早报-20250718

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand improvement is limited, and inventory is at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily View - Fundamentals: There are few maintenance of soda ash plants, supply remains at a high level; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has dropped significantly, terminal demand has weakened, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high; bearish [2] - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,210 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1,225 yuan/ton, the basis is - 15 yuan, and the futures price is higher than the spot price; bearish [2] - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.9056 million tons, an increase of 2.26% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average; bearish [2][33] - Disk: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward; bullish [2] - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing; bearish [2] - Expectation: The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand, and it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation in the short term [2] 2. Influencing Factors - Bullish factors: The rebound of the downstream glass disk boosts the sentiment of the soda ash market [3] - Bearish factors: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand improvement is limited, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [4] 3. Soda Ash Futures Market | Indicator | Previous Value | Current Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract closing price (yuan/ton) | 1,208 | 1,225 | 1.41% | | Heavy - quality soda ash: Low - end price in Shahe (yuan/ton) | 1,195 | 1,210 | 1.26% | | Main basis (yuan/ton) | - 13 | - 15 | 15.38% | [6] 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,210 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [12] - Production profit: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 134.30 yuan/ton, and that by the East China combined - soda process is - 113.50 yuan/ton, which is at the lowest level in the same period in history [15] - Operating rate: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 81.32%, and the expected operating rate will decline seasonally [18] - Output: The weekly output of soda ash is 708,900 tons, including 400,100 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, which is at a historical high [20] - New capacity: In 2023, the new capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity is 7.5 million tons, and the actual production is 1 million tons [21] 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Sales - to - production ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 92.40% [25] - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 158,400 tons, and the operating rate is 75.68%, showing a stable recovery; the price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the daily melting volume in production has dropped significantly [28][31] 6. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The historical and expected supply - demand balance data of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E are provided, including effective capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34]