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焦煤焦炭早报(2025-7-18)-20250718
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-18 02:16

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of coking coal is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend. The production of coking coal has recovered, market sentiment is high, downstream procurement demand has increased, and coal prices will continue the positive trend under restocking support. Although the profit margin of downstream steel mills has been squeezed after accepting the first price increase, the demand for raw materials remains due to high pig iron production and no intention to reduce production [2]. - The short - term price of coke is also expected to be stable with a slight upward trend. Downstream procurement is active, coke inventories are generally low, but the sharp rise in coking coal prices has increased the cost pressure on coke enterprises, and some coke enterprises are still in a state of production restriction. The supply of coke remains tight, and the market bullish sentiment is strong [5]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Coking Coal - Fundamental: Mines are gradually resuming production, market sentiment is high, downstream procurement demand has increased, and coal prices will continue the positive trend under restocking support; the situation is bullish [2]. - Basis: The spot market price is 940, with a basis of 21.5, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price; the situation is bullish [2]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 1775.5 tons, a decrease of 19.3 tons compared to last week; the situation is bullish [2]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; the situation is bullish [2]. - Main Position: The main net position of coking coal is short, and the short position is decreasing; the situation is bearish [2]. - Expectation: After the downstream steel mills accept the first price increase, although the profit margin is squeezed, the demand for raw materials remains due to high pig iron production and no intention to reduce production. The short - term coking coal price is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend [2]. Coke - Fundamental: Downstream procurement is active, coke inventories are generally low, but the sharp rise in coking coal prices has increased the cost pressure on coke enterprises, and some coke enterprises are still in a state of production restriction. The situation is bullish [5]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1420, with a basis of - 99, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price; the situation is bearish [5]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 933.2 tons, a decrease of 15.2 tons compared to last week; the situation is bullish [5]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; the situation is bullish [5]. - Main Position: The main net position of coke is short, and the short position is increasing; the situation is bearish [5]. - Expectation: Coke enterprises' profits are low, production enthusiasm is average, some coke enterprises are still in a state of production restriction, the supply of coke remains tight, and the market bullish sentiment is strong. The short - term coke price is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend [5]. Influencing Factors Coking Coal - Bullish factors: Increase in pig iron production; difficulty in increasing supply [4]. - Bearish factors: Slowdown in raw coal procurement by coke and steel enterprises; weak steel prices [4]. Coke - Bullish factors: Increase in pig iron production and simultaneous increase in blast furnace operating rate [7]. - Bearish factors: Squeezed profit margin of steel mills; partial overdraft of restocking demand [7]. Price Information Coking Coal - On July 17, 2025 (17:30), the prices of imported Russian and Australian coking coal are provided, including the prices of various types of coking coal such as main coking coal, 1/3 coking coal, and fat coal at different ports, along with price changes [9]. Coke - On July 17, 2025 (17:30), the prices of port metallurgical coke are provided, including the prices of different grades of metallurgical coke from different origins at various ports, along with price changes [8]. Inventory Information - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 312 tons, a decrease of 1 ton compared to last week; coke port inventory is 203.1 tons, a decrease of 11.1 tons compared to last week [17]. - Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory: Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 669.5 tons, a decrease of 21.4 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 87.3 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons compared to last week [20]. - Steel Mill Inventory: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 774 tons, an increase of 3.1 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 642.8 tons, a decrease of 3 tons compared to last week [23]. Other Information - Coke Oven Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74%, the same as last week [34]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan compared to last week [38].