Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation is finalized, the non-US region's electrolytic copper market shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weak actual demand", and the spot contradictions are gradually resolved. The next stage may return to macro trading, and the negotiation of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US will also disrupt copper prices. The main focus is on the support level of 78,000 [1]. Aluminum - The price of alumina is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 2,950 - 3,250 this week. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of a squeeze caused by policy changes in Guinea and the reduction of warehouse receipts. The aluminum price is currently at a high level but is expected to face short - term pressure due to inventory accumulation expectations, weak demand, and macro disturbances. The reference price range for the main contract this week is 19,950 - 20,750 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to be weak and fluctuate mainly, with the main reference range of 19,400 - 20,200. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions [5]. Zinc - In the medium - to - long term, zinc is still in a cycle of loose supply. If the growth rate of the ore end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may maintain a high - level shock pattern; otherwise, the zinc price center may move down. The main reference range is 21,500 - 23,000 [7]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. The cost support for refined nickel has weakened, and the medium - term supply is expected to remain loose [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. It is recommended to continue holding short positions established at previous high levels [12]. Stainless Steel - The short - term stainless steel market will mainly fluctuate, with the main operating range of 12,500 - 13,000. The overall supply may decrease, but the demand is weak and the inventory reduction is slow [15]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to remain strong in a certain range, with the main reference range of 63,000 - 70,000. However, there is still downward pressure in the medium term. The focus is on the upstream operation actions [19]. Summary by Directory Copper - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,020 yuan/ton, down 0.05% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 is - 64.49 dollars/ton, down 16.22 dollars/ton from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 2 yuan/ton, an increase of 219.72 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - Fundamental Data: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a decrease of 0.30% from the previous month. In May, the import volume was 253,100 tons, an increase of 1.23% from the previous month [1]. Aluminum - Price and Spread: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,570 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1,286 yuan/ton, an increase of 120.1 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - Fundamental Data: In June, the alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a decrease of 0.19% from the previous month. The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of 3.22% from the previous month [4]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Spread: SMM Southwest ADC12 price is 20,100 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from the previous day. The 2511 - 2512 monthly spread is 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. - Fundamental Data: In June, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 615,000 tons, an increase of 1.49% from the previous month. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 255,000 tons, a decrease of 2.30% from the previous month [5]. Zinc - Price and Spread: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,110 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day. The 2508 - 2509 monthly spread is 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. - Fundamental Data: In June, the refined zinc production was 585,100 tons, an increase of 6.50% from the previous month. In May, the import volume was 26,700 tons, a decrease of 5.36% from the previous month [7]. Nickel - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 120,450 yuan/ton, down 1.35% from the previous day. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price (ex - factory price) is 900 yuan/nickel point, unchanged from the previous day [9]. - Fundamental Data: China's refined nickel production in the current period is 31,800 tons, a decrease of 10.04% from the previous month. The import volume is 19,157 tons, an increase of 116.90% from the previous month [9]. Tin - Spot Price and Basis: SMM 1 tin price is 261,900 yuan/ton, down 0.64% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 spread is - 108 dollars/ton, an increase of 7 dollars/ton from the previous day [12]. - Fundamental Data: In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, an increase of 36.39% from the previous month. The SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 2.37% from the previous month [12]. Stainless Steel - Price and Basis: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot - futures spread is 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24.00% from the previous day [15]. - Fundamental Data: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) in the current period is 1.7133 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% from the previous month. The import volume is 125,100 tons, a decrease of 12.00% from the previous month [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Basis: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 64,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis (based on SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate) is - 3,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 88.48% from the previous day [19]. - Fundamental Data: In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 8.34% from the previous month. The demand was 83,815 tons, a decrease of 0.15% from the previous month [19].
《有色》日报-20250718
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-07-18 02:13