甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250718

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Methanol: High imports are being realized, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. It is currently in a period of negative factors being realized. With unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. Given the low valuation, it is advisable to consider buying at low prices [1]. - Plastic (Polyethylene): The overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profits are around - 400 with no further increase for now. The domestic linear production has increased month - on - month in June. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [2]. - PP (Polypropylene): The upstream and middle - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, non - standard price differences are neutral, and import profit is around - 500. Exports have been good this year. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive supply pressure, which can be alleviated if exports continue to grow or PDH device maintenance increases [2]. - PVC: The basis remains at 09 - 150, and the downstream start - up rate is seasonally weak. The inventory reduction of the middle and upstream has slowed down. Attention should be paid to production commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, and the downstream performance is mediocre [2]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - Price Data: From July 11 to July 17, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The daily changes of other prices were generally small, with the most significant being a 3 - unit increase in Jiangsu spot price and a 5 - unit decrease in South China spot price. The daily change of the盘面MTO profit was - 11 [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - Price Data: From July 11 to July 17, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 820. The most significant daily change was a 25 - unit decrease in the East China LD price. The import profit remained at - 177 on July 17, and the daily change of the main futures price was 1 [2]. PP (Polypropylene) - Price Data: From July 11 to July 17, 2025, the Northeast Asia propylene price remained at 740. The most significant daily changes were a 20 - unit decrease in Shandong propylene price and a 10 - unit decrease in East China PP price. The export profit remained at 4, and the daily change of the main futures price was 7 [2]. PVC - Price Data: From July 11 to July 17, 2025, the prices of Northwest calcium carbide and Shandong caustic soda remained unchanged. There were no significant daily changes in other prices, and all daily changes were 0 [2].