大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250718

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP. For LLDPE, the overall fundamentals are bearish, with expectations of a volatile market due to factors such as OPEC's continuous production increase, the off - season for agricultural film demand, weak downstream demand, and new production capacity pressure. For PP, the fundamentals are also bearish, and its market is expected to be volatile considering factors like weak downstream demand and OPEC's production increase [4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Analysis - Fundamentals: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May. OPEC issued a production increase statement on July 5, with production increasing for the fourth consecutive month. The agricultural film is in the off - season, packaging film downstream is weak, and new production capacity pressure remains. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7180 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is -35, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.5%, considered neutral [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 58.7 tons (+3.3), which is bearish [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today, affected by OPEC's production increase, off - season demand, weak downstream demand, and new production capacity pressure [4]. - Leverage Factors: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factors are new production capacity release and weak demand. The main logic is the game between cost and demand, along with tariff policies [6]. PP Analysis - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the macroeconomic indicators show a contraction range for PMI, and OPEC is increasing production. The downstream demand for PP is in the off - season, with weak demand in pipes and plastic weaving. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7140 (-40), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [7]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 120, with a premium/discount ratio of 1.7%, considered bullish [7]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.6 tons (-1.5), considered neutral [7]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [7]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [7]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today, affected by OPEC's production increase and weak downstream demand [7]. - Leverage Factors: Bullish factor is cost support; the bearish factor is weak demand. The main logic is the game between cost and demand, along with tariff policies [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [15]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906 [17].