大越期货尿素早报-20250718

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is expected to show a volatile trend today. International urea prices are strong, but the domestic market still has an obvious oversupply situation, and the export policy has not been relaxed beyond expectations [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Recently, the urea futures market has been fluctuating. International supply is tight due to geopolitical factors, and Indian tender prices are expected to rise further, leading to strong international urea prices. In the domestic market, the operating rate has declined but remains high, and inventories are generally high. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand have continued to decline, and agricultural demand is expected to weaken again. The overall domestic urea market still has an obvious oversupply situation, and the export policy has not been relaxed beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1760 (-70), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 17, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.0%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.24 million tons (+55,000), which is a bearish factor [4]. - Futures Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral signal [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the UR main contract is decreasing, which is a bullish signal [4]. - Likely Factors: The bullish factor is the strong international price, while the bearish factors are the high operating rate and weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international supply and domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market Conditions | Type | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Market | The spot price of the delivery product is 1760 (-70), Shandong spot is 1760 (-70), Henan spot is 1760 (0), and FOB China is 2584 [6]. | | Futures Market | The price of the 09 contract is 1743 (+10), UR01 is 1718 (+8), UR05 is 1730 (+3), and the basis is 17 (-80) [6]. | | Inventory | The warehouse receipt is 2630 (0), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.24 million tons (+55,000), UR manufacturer inventory is 1.035 million tons, and UR port inventory is 205,000 tons [6]. | Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10] |