大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250718

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: In July, there are not many PTA plant overhauls, and the Sanfangxiang plant is planned to be put into operation. With the off - season of terminal demand, polyester sales have been weak, and inventory pressure has been accumulating. It is expected that the short - term PTA drive will be weak, and its price will follow cost fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the progress of new PTA plant commissioning and the fluctuation of downstream polyester load [5]. - MEG: Affected by the poor restart of some plants in Saudi Arabia, the local loading plan has been postponed recently. After the downward revision of the long - distance arrival forecast, the ethylene glycol import volume in August is expected to be around 600,000 tons. In the domestic sector, Zhejiang Petrochemical has reduced its load, Jianyuan has had a temporary shutdown, and Satellite Petrochemical may postpone its restart. After the supply - demand correction, ethylene glycol will turn to a dynamic balance from August to September, and the inventory accumulation expectation is postponed. It is expected that ethylene glycol will be mainly oscillating and firm in the short term. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the polyester load and the terminal market changes [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day Review - PTA: The PTA futures closed slightly higher yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, mainly between traders. The spot basis strengthened. Mainstream suppliers sold goods. The July goods were negotiated and traded at around 09 + 17 - 30, with the price negotiation range at around 4,710 - 4,750. The mid - August goods were traded at around 09 + 15 - 20. Today's mainstream spot basis is 09 + 24, neutral. The spot price is 4,728, the 09 - contract basis is 14, and the futures price is at a discount, neutral. The PTA factory inventory is 3.86 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 days, neutral. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, bearish. The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, bearish [6]. - MEG: On Thursday, the ethylene glycol price fluctuated within a range, and the basis weakened significantly. In the night session, ethylene glycol was narrowly sorted, and the on - site negotiation was weak. In the morning, the ethylene glycol price rose firmly, and the high - level spot was traded at over 4,460 yuan/ton. The high - level far - month futures offers were concentrated. In the afternoon, the ethylene glycol futures price fell slightly, and the basis weakened significantly. By the end of the session, the spot basis fell to around 09 - contract premium of 51 - 53 yuan/ton. In terms of US dollars, the overseas ethylene glycol price was sorted at a high level. The recent cargoes were negotiated at around 515 - 520 US dollars/ton, and some traders participated in purchasing. There was also a Taiwan tender cargo traded at around 523 US dollars/ton, with a cargo volume of 3,000 tons. The spot price is 4,433, the 09 - contract basis is 61, and the futures price is at a discount, neutral. The inventory in East China is 494,000 tons in total, with a month - on - month increase of 13,700 tons, bearish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, bearish. The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, bearish [8]. 3.2. Daily Tips - PTA: Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side. After the futures price rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. - MEG: Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side. After the futures price rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3.3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4. Fundamental Data - PTA: The report provides the PTA supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including data such as PTA production capacity, production, import, export, and inventory [11]. - MEG: The report provides the ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including data such as ethylene glycol production capacity, production, import, export, and inventory [12]. 3.5. Price The report presents various price - related data, including bottle - chip spot prices, PTA and MEG basis, inter - month spreads, and spot spreads, with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and CCF [13][39]. 3.6. Inventory Analysis The report shows inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester fibers, including factory inventory days and port inventories, with data sources from Wind [40][44]. 3.7. Polyester Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rates - Upstream: It includes the start - up rates of PTA, paraxylene, and ethylene glycol, with data sources from Wind [51][53]. - Downstream: It includes the start - up rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms, with data sources from Wind [55][57]. 3.8. Processing Fees and Profits - PTA: The report shows the PTA processing fee data, with data sources from Wind [59][61]. - MEG: It shows the profit data of different MEG production methods, including methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, and ethylene - based production, with data sources from Wind and Mysteel [62][64]. - Polyester Fibers: It shows the production profit data of polyester short - fibers and long - fibers (DTY, POY, FDY), with data sources from Wind [65][70].