《特殊商品》日报-20250718

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports 2. Core Views - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass futures are driven by sentiment, with the spot market turning strong but the long - term outlook depending on cold - repair. Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, with inventory building up after maintenance. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities in soda ash and to observe the glass market [1] - Log: The log futures rose sharply, but the high - temperature season leads to low demand. The short - term upward trend's sustainability is questionable, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] - Rubber: Due to continuous rainfall in Southeast Asia and potential typhoons in Hainan, supply is disrupted, while demand is stable. Short - term rubber prices are rising, and a short - selling approach on rebounds is recommended [4] - Industrial Silicon: The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price has increased. The impact of rising polysilicon prices is weakening. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and large - enterprise restart plans, with a focus on price decline risks [6] - Polysilicon: Polysilicon futures prices have reached a new high. The short - term bullish sentiment is strong, but attention should be paid to supply - demand regulation and risk management [8] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - Prices and Spreads: Glass and soda ash spot prices in most regions are stable, while futures prices have increased. Some spreads have changed significantly [1] - Supply and Demand: Soda ash production and inventory are increasing, while float and photovoltaic melting volumes are decreasing [1] - Real Estate Data: Real estate indicators such as new construction area and construction area show negative growth, but the decline in some indicators has narrowed [1] Log - Futures and Spot Prices: Log futures prices have generally increased, while spot prices in ports are stable. The outer - market quotation has risen [2] - Supply: Port shipments have increased, the number of departing ships from New Zealand has decreased, and inventory has decreased [2] - Demand: Log demand has decreased, and the daily outbound volume has declined [2] Rubber - Spot Prices and Basis: Rubber spot prices have mostly increased, and the basis of some varieties has changed [4] - Fundamental Data: Rubber production in some countries has increased, tire production has increased slightly, and imports have decreased [4] - Inventory Changes: Rubber inventory in bonded areas and warehouses has changed, and the entry and exit rates of dry rubber in Qingdao have adjusted [4] Industrial Silicon - Spot Prices and Basis: Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and the basis of some varieties has decreased [6] - Monthly Data: National and regional industrial silicon production and start - up rates have changed, and downstream product production has increased [6] - Inventory Changes: Factory and social inventories of industrial silicon have changed slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased [6] Polysilicon - Spot and Futures Prices: Polysilicon spot and futures prices have increased, and the basis and spreads of some varieties have changed [8] - Fundamental Data: Polysilicon and silicon wafer production and import/export volumes have changed, and demand for silicon wafers has decreased [8] - Inventory Changes: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories have decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged [8]