大越期货白糖早报-20250718

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic consumption of sugar is good, and the inventory has decreased. The tariff on syrup has increased, and the short - term out - of - quota imports are relatively small. However, the global sugar production has increased, and there will be a surplus in the new year. The price of foreign sugar has fallen below 17 cents/pound, and the import profit window has opened, increasing the import impact. The 09 contract of sugar is close to the delivery month, currently at a discount of about 300. In the next month or so, the spot price may decline slightly, and the futures 09 may rise slightly to complete the regression of the basis [5][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - No information provided in the content. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Trump agreed to the modification of the cola formula, which is a long - term positive for sugar. Czarnikow predicts a 750 - thousand - ton surplus in the global sugar market in the 25/26 season. The USDA expects the global sugar production to increase by 4.7% and consumption by 1.4% in the 25/26 season, with a surplus of 1.1397 million tons. As of the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, and the sugar sales rate was 72.69% (66.17% in the same period last year). In May 2025, China imported 350 thousand tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 330 thousand tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 64.2 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 150.7 thousand tons [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6120, and the basis for the 09 contract is 292, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is a positive signal [6]. - Inventory: As of the end of May, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar - making season was 3.0483 million tons, which is a positive signal [6]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a positive signal [6]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, the net short position has increased, and the main trend is unclear, which is a negative signal [6]. - Expectation: Domestic sugar is about to clear inventory. Imported sugar has increased in July. Currently, it is the consumption peak season, and the market sales are good. The 09 contract is close to the delivery month, currently at a discount of about 300. In the next month or so, the spot price may decline slightly, and the futures 09 may rise slightly to complete the regression of the basis [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No information provided in the content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Supply and Demand Forecast: The global sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to be 202 million tons, a record - high second, with Brazil, India, and Thailand leading the increase; consumption is expected to be 198 million tons, with Asian demand growing by 1.3% and African demand growing at the fastest rate of 2.2%; there is an expected surplus of 2.7 million tons, shifting from shortage to surplus, but institutional forecasts vary; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 52% - 54%, and the inventory pressure has eased but is still below the long - term average; the global trade volume is expected to be 62 million tons, with Brazil's export accounting for more than 50% and Thailand's exports returning to a high level [36]. - Institutional Forecasts in the Past 3 Months: The USDA forecasts a surplus of 1.1397 million tons (doubling year - on - year), with Brazil and India's increased production leading to a loose supply situation; Datagro forecasts a surplus of 258 thousand tons, due to India's resumption of exports and Brazil's high production; ISO forecasts a shift from a 24/25 deficit of 488 thousand tons to a possible surplus in 25/26, indicating a mitigation of regional shortages; StoneX forecasts a global production increase of 330 thousand tons and a surplus of 430 thousand tons, as weak consumption growth cannot offset the supply pressure [39]. - China's Sugar Industry Data: The sugar - cane planting area in China in the 25/26 season is expected to be 1.44 million hectares, the sugar - cane production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, imports are expected to be 5 million tons, consumption is expected to be 15.9 million tons, and the balance change is expected to be 120 thousand tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents/pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan/ton [41]. 3.5 Position Data - No information provided in the content.