大越期货油脂早报-20250718

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The price of oils and fats is in a state of shock consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The expected production in South America in the 24/25 USDA report is high. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption and reduces the available supply, but the international biodiesel profit is low and the demand is weak. The additional tariff on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of China-US and China-Canada relations affects the market at the macro level. [2][3][4] - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in May decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8304, with a basis of 232, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [2] - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a 11.7% year - on - year increase. [2] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. [2] - Main Position: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract are decreasing. [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2509 will fluctuate in the range of 7900 - 8300. [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8894, with a basis of 98, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [3] - Inventory: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 34.1% year - on - year decrease. [3] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. [3] - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract are increasing. [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2509 will fluctuate in the range of 8600 - 9000. [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9581, with a basis of 141, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [4] - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a 3.2% year - on - year increase. [4] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are decreasing. [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2509 will fluctuate in the range of 9250 - 9650. [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. [5] - Bearish factors: The price of oils and fats is at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. [5] Supply - Related - Imported soybean inventory [6] - Soybean oil inventory [7] - Soybean meal inventory [9] - Oil mill soybean crushing [11] - Palm oil inventory [17] - Rapeseed oil inventory [19] - Rapeseed inventory [21] - Total domestic inventory of oils and fats [23] Demand - Related - Apparent consumption of soybean oil [13] - Apparent consumption of soybean meal [15]