大越期货菜粕早报-20250718

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2680 - 2740. The market is influenced by factors such as the low - level operation of rapeseed meal oil mills, low inventory, the peak season of spot demand, increased imports of Canadian rapeseed, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. In the short term, it will maintain a range - bound pattern [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is in a range - bound oscillation. It is affected by the upward movement of soybean meal and technical buying. The low - level operation of oil mills and low inventory support the market. The short - term spot demand is in the peak season, and the increase in imported rapeseed arrivals does not pose an immediate inventory pressure on oil mills. The tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but its impact is limited [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market while maintaining good demand expectations. The slight decrease in Canada's rapeseed annual output supports the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. Globally, the rapeseed output has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the decline in EU production and lower - than - expected Canadian production. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict has an offsetting effect on rapeseed production, and the geopolitical conflict may further intensify, providing support for commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish Factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the low inventory pressure of oil mills [12]. - Bearish Factors: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June, the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [13]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price and Spread: From July 8th to 17th, the average trading price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2879 - 2930, and the trading volume varied from 6.51 - 18.51 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2500 - 2620, and the trading volume was between 0 - 99 million tons. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased from 379 to 310. The rapeseed meal futures and spot prices both showed an upward trend, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price [14][16]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory was 0.46 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 84.67% [9]. - Supply and Demand Balance: The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets from 2014 - 2023 show that the supply and demand situation has changed over the years, with fluctuations in inventory - to - consumption ratios [25][26]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal have increased, and capital has flowed in [9].