大越期货豆粕早报-20250718

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern. The M2509 contract of soybean meal is likely to fluctuate between 3000 and 3060. The soybean market is also affected by multiple factors, and the A2509 contract of soybean is expected to move between 4160 and 4260 [8][10]. - The market focuses on the impact of US soybean planting weather and Sino - US trade tariff games for soybean meal, and on the impact of South American soybean harvesting weather and Sino - US trade tariff games for soybeans [13][14]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Tips - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3000 - 3060, and the soybean A2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4160 - 4260. The soybean meal market is neutral, with a negative basis, a positive inventory situation, a positive trend on the disk, a positive situation in the main position, and is expected to return to a range - bound pattern. The soybean market is also affected by multiple factors, with a neutral overall situation [8][10]. 2. Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is currently good, and the US soybean futures are expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories of oil mills have rebounded from low levels. - The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased, leading to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price expectation. The soybean meal market is in a short - term weak and volatile pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high arrival volume of imported soybeans in June, and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: shows the harvest area, beginning inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 [30]. - Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: presents the harvest area, beginning inventory, production, import volume, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 [31]. - Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress: includes the planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24), the US (2024), Brazil (2024/25), and Argentina (2024/25) [32][33][37][39]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report: shows the harvest area, yield, production, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing volume, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in the past six months [40]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided. Other Market Conditions - The export inspection of US soybeans has rebounded week - on - week but declined year - on - year [41]. - The arrival of imported soybeans has been postponed to June, with an overall increase [43]. - The inventories of soybeans and soybean meal in oil mills have continued to rise [44]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have increased significantly, indicating an increase in long - term stocking demand [46]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains high, and the soybean meal production in June increased year - on - year [48]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans and the futures profit of imported soybeans have both fluctuated slightly [50]. - The inventories of live pigs and sows have increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month [52]. - The price of live pigs has rebounded recently, while the price of piglets remains weak [54]. - The proportion of large pigs in China has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of live pigs has increased slightly [56]. - The profit of domestic pig farming has rebounded from a low level [58].