大越期货原油早报-20250718

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overnight crude oil stabilized and rebounded. The unrest in the Kurdish region of Iraq affected crude oil output, and there were again reports of supply - side tightness. US crude oil production is approaching its peak, and OPEC+ production increases are still slightly below the target, which will support oil prices in the short term. It is expected that the price will operate in the range of 520 - 530 in the short term, and long - term investors should wait and see [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2508, the fundamentals are neutral as US economic activity improved slightly and there were events affecting supply; the basis is neutral with spot at par with futures; inventory is bullish as EIA inventory decreased more than expected; the disk is bearish with the 20 - day moving average downward and price above it; the main positions are neutral with different trends in WTI and Brent; short - term price is expected to operate in the 520 - 530 range, and long - term is to wait and see [3]. 2. Recent News - US retail sales in June rebounded more than expected, which may lead the Fed to delay interest rate cuts. Initial jobless claims in the week ending July 12 decreased to 221,000, the lowest since April [5]. - The EU is preparing a list of tariffs on US services and export control measures as a potential retaliation if trade talks with the US fail. Trump plans to impose a 30% tariff on the EU starting from August 1. The list is in addition to the existing retaliatory proposal on 72 billion euros of US imports [5]. - Russia opposes Trump's decision to increase arms shipments to Ukraine and vows not to accept the "blackmail" of new US sanctions [5]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factor: The intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [6]. - Bearish factors: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months; the US has tense trade relations with other economies; Iran and Israel have reached a cease - fire [6]. - Market driver: Geopolitical conflicts will boost prices in the short term, and the market is waiting for the peak summer demand season in the long term [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude decreased, with declines of - 0.72%, - 0.69%, - 0.15%, and - 3.09% respectively [7]. - Spot Market: The prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude decreased, with declines of - 0.75%, - 0.69%, - 2.59%, - 2.73%, and - 3.15% respectively [9]. - Inventory Data: API inventory as of July 11 increased by 839,000 barrels, while EIA inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels. Cushing region inventory increased by 213,000 barrels. Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained at 4.517 million barrels as of July 17 [3]. 5. Position Data - WTI Crude: As of July 8, the net long position of WTI crude funds decreased by 25,319 to 209,374 [16]. - Brent Crude: As of July 8, the net long position of Brent crude funds increased by 55,630 to 222,347 [19].