大越期货沥青期货早报-20250718

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows an increase in production by refineries, leading to increased supply pressure. The demand during the peak season has not recovered as expected and remains sluggish. Inventory is continuously decreasing, and the cost support from crude oil is weakening in the short - term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3603 - 3653 [8][10]. - The fundamentals are bearish, the basis is bullish, the inventory situation is complex (social inventory is decreasing, factory inventory is increasing, and port inventory is increasing), the disk is neutral, and the main positions are net long with an increase in long positions [8][11]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the strengthened expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Side: In July 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China is 2539000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week is 33.9166%, a month - on - month increase of 0.779 percentage points. The shipment of sample enterprises is 261200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.91%. The output of sample enterprises is 566000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.35%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices is 582000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.51%. Refineries have increased production recently, increasing supply pressure [8]. - Demand Side: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 32.7%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of building asphalt is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of modified asphalt is 14.383%, a month - on - month increase of 0.34 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 25%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00 percentage point, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 30%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - Cost Side: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 460.93 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 11.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 838.2543 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.69%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. Crude oil has weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short - term [9]. - Expectation: It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3603 - 3653 [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - Base Price: On July 17, the spot price in Shandong was 3820 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 192 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [11]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 1312000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.45%. Factory inventory is 763000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.01%. Port diluted asphalt inventory is 27000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.75% [11]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [11]. - Main Positions: The main positions are net long, with an increase in long positions [11]. 3.3 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: The asphalt processing profit has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased [9]. - Supply Side: - Shipment Volume: The weekly shipment volume of small - sample asphalt enterprises shows certain trends over time [46][47]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The domestic diluted asphalt port inventory has changed over time [48][49]. - Production: The weekly and monthly production of asphalt shows different trends in different years [52]. - Price and Production of Venezuelan Crude Oil: The price of Merey crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil have shown trends over time [55][57]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: The production of local refinery asphalt has changed over time [58][59]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: The weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt has shown trends over time [61][62]. - Estimated Maintenance Loss: The estimated maintenance loss of asphalt has shown trends over time [63][64]. - Inventory: - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: The exchange warehouse receipts (including total, social inventory, and factory inventory) have changed over time [66][69]. - Social and Factory Inventory: The social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt have shown trends over time [70][71]. - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio: The factory inventory inventory ratio has shown trends over time [73][74]. - Import and Export: The import and export volume of asphalt has shown trends over time, and the import price difference of South Korean asphalt has also changed [76][77][80]. - Demand Side: - Petroleum Coke Production: The petroleum coke production has shown trends over time [82][83]. - Apparent Consumption: The apparent consumption of asphalt has shown trends over time [85][86]. - Downstream Demand: The downstream demand, including highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year, and downstream machinery demand (asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales), has shown trends over time [88][93][95]. - Asphalt Construction Rate: The construction rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, asphalt by use, and downstream construction (such as shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane) have shown trends over time [97][100][101]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet shows the monthly production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand of asphalt from January 2024 to July 2025 [106][107].