《能源化工》日报-20250718

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views Methanol - The inland market's maintenance has reached its peak, and there is an expectation of increased production in late July. The port market faces dual pressures: an expected arrival of 1.25 million tons in July and planned maintenance of coastal MTO units, which will weaken demand. The port will continue to accumulate inventory from July to August, but the current absolute inventory is relatively low year - on - year, with limited upside and downside space, suggesting range - bound operations [4]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly. The main logic is the weakening downstream market and the approaching end of the consumption peak season, with a possible supply surplus in the second half of the year. The EIA weekly report shows that Cushing inventory reached its highest level since June, and US distillate demand slightly declined, although crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels. In the short term, after the oil price decline, there is a high probability of a stalemate between bulls and bears. It is recommended to adopt a short - term band strategy [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Short - term downward pressure exists due to factors such as the postponement of some domestic device maintenance plans and the recovery of overseas supply. However, considering the expected commissioning of new PTA devices, the supply - demand situation is expected to remain tight, and there is support at low levels [31]. - PTA: The supply - demand situation is expected to be weak, with a weakening basis. The absolute price is under pressure. Strategies include range - bound operations, short - selling above 4800, and other operations [31]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the EGO9 contract and pay attention to the pressure around 4400 [31]. - Short Fiber: The supply - demand situation is weak on both sides, with limited driving forces. The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials [31]. - Bottle Chips: There is an expectation of improved supply - demand, but the absolute price still follows the cost side. Attention should be paid to further production cuts and downstream follow - up [31]. Polyolefins - From a supply - demand perspective, PP maintenance is gradually peaking, and PE maintenance in the second half of the month is still relatively high. It is the seasonal off - season for demand, with static supply and demand both declining, inventory accumulating, and apparent demand weakening. Dynamically, PE import offers are still scarce, and demand is expected to improve seasonally in late July. For unilateral strategies, both PP and PE lack strong driving forces, and range - bound operations are recommended. For arbitrage, take profit when LP is around 250 [35]. Urea - The futures price has recently declined. The short - term driving forces for the futures price mainly come from the seasonal weakening of demand and the increasing supply pressure, with export expectations providing partial support for large - granular urea. Agricultural demand has ended, leading to a decline in the spot trading atmosphere, which in turn drags down the futures sentiment. The supply side has a high daily output, and although maintenance has increased, the total supply is abundant, and the weak new order transactions amplify the pessimistic atmosphere. Exports only support large - granular urea locally and have limited impact on small - granular urea. It is expected that the futures price may still face pressure in the short term [42]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure Benzene: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in July, but due to high import expectations and relatively high port inventory, its own driving force is limited. Affected by weak oil prices and the styrene price, it may fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the main contract BZ2603 and adopt a reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread [46]. - Styrene: The supply - demand situation is expected to be weak, with increasing port inventory and short - term pressure on the basis. It is under short - term pressure. Strategies include short - selling the EB08 contract, selling call options with an exercise price above 7500, and narrowing the EB - BZ spread [46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol - Prices and Spreads: On July 16, MA2601 closed at 2434, MA2509 at 2367, with a MA91 spread of - 67 and a Taicang basis of 11. Compared with July 15, most prices and spreads showed certain changes [2]. - Inventory: As of Wednesday, methanol enterprise inventory was 35.234% (a decrease of 1.28% from the previous value), port inventory was 790,000 tons (an increase of 9.92%), and social inventory was 114.3% (an increase of 6.20%) [3]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: As of Thursday, the domestic upstream enterprise operating rate was 72.5% (a decrease of 4.11% from the previous value), the overseas upstream enterprise operating rate was 71.1% (an increase of 11.12%), and the operating rates of various downstream devices also showed different changes [4]. Crude Oil - EIA Weekly Data (as of July 11, 2025): US crude oil production was 13.375 million barrels per day, refinery operating rate was 93.9%, crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels, and other data also showed corresponding changes [7]. - Prices and Spreads: On July 17, Brent was at $68.77 per barrel, WTI at $66.68 per barrel, and various price spreads also changed compared with July 16 [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - Prices and Spreads: Various product prices in the polyester industry chain, such as PX, PTA, and MEG, showed different changes on July 16 compared with July 15, and price spreads also changed accordingly [31]. - Operating Rates: The operating rates of various devices in the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA, and MEG, showed different degrees of change on a weekly basis [31]. Polyolefins - Prices and Spreads: On July 16, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509, as well as various price spreads and basis values, showed certain changes compared with July 15 [35]. - Inventory and Operating Rates: PE and PP inventories showed different trends, and the operating rates of their devices and downstream industries also changed [35]. Urea - Prices and Spreads: On July 16, the prices of various urea products and related price spreads and basis values showed certain changes compared with July 15 [42]. - Supply and Demand: The daily and weekly production, inventory, and order days of urea showed different trends, with the factory - level inventory decreasing by 7.46% on a weekly basis [42]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Prices and Spreads: On July 16, the prices of pure benzene, styrene, and related products, as well as price spreads and basis values, showed certain changes compared with July 15 [46]. - Inventory and Operating Rates: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in the East China port showed different trends, and the operating rates of related industries also changed [46].