Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures both increased. Industrial silicon rose by 3.33%, mainly driven by the rise in polysilicon. Polysilicon rose by 6.95%, driven by the anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry, but the increase converged and prices fell on Friday. Next week, the futures prices are expected to consolidate at high levels with a downward - shifting center of gravity [5]. - For industrial silicon, on the supply side, the spot price increased significantly. The fertilizer subsidy policy in the Northwest Yili region remained stable, and large - scale producers showed no signs of production cuts. The production cost in the Southwest decreased, with some regions having a positive resumption of production. On the demand side, the overall demand from the three major downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) continued to slow down [5]. - For polysilicon, on the supply side, the overall production increased this week, with some enterprises increasing production and some under maintenance. On the demand side, affected by the anti - involution meeting, production capacity declined significantly, and downstream demand weakened marginally. The overall demand side still faces great pressure [5]. - In terms of operations, it is recommended that the main contract of industrial silicon oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, with a stop - loss range of 7800 - 9200. The main contract of polysilicon should oscillate in the short term, with an oscillation range of 40000 - 45000 and a stop - loss range of 38500 - 46000 [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Review: Industrial silicon prices rose by 3.33% this week, driven by polysilicon. There were rumors of silicon material storage, but they were unconfirmed. Polysilicon prices rose by 6.95%, driven by the anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry, but prices fell on Friday due to weak downstream feedback [5]. - Market Outlook: For industrial silicon, supply increased, and demand from downstream industries slowed down. For polysilicon, supply increased slightly, and demand faced great pressure. If the silicon material storage rumor is disproven next week, prices are expected to fall [5]. - Operation Suggestions: The main contract of industrial silicon should oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, and the main contract of polysilicon should oscillate in the short term within 40000 - 45000, with corresponding stop - loss ranges [5]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - Industrial Silicon: Futures and spot prices rose, and the basis strengthened. As of July 18, 2025, the spot price was 9350 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 655 yuan/ton. The production and operating rate increased, with a national output of about 78,900 tons and a capacity utilization rate of 54.33% [11][13][20]. - Polysilicon: Futures prices rebounded, the basis weakened, and the spot price remained flat. As of July 18, 2025, the spot price was 46 yuan/kg, and the basis was 2150 yuan/g [15][17]. 3.3. Industry Conditions - Raw Materials and Costs: Industrial silicon raw material prices fell slightly, electricity prices decreased, and overall costs continued to decline during the wet season. The electricity price in the Southwest was stable at 0.3 yuan/kWh, and the silica price remained stable [23][26]. - Inventory: Industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased, social inventory increased, and the overall inventory remained flat. As of July 18, 2025, the number of warehouse receipts was 50,357 lots, a decrease of 435 lots, and the total social inventory was 553,000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons [28][30]. - Downstream Organic Silicon: Production and operating rates increased, short - term profits were restored, but costs increased significantly, leading to a decline in profits. As of July 18, 2025, the weekly output was 44,900 tons, the operating rate was 71.38% (up 1.97%), the spot price was 10,860 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan/ton), the gross profit was 63 yuan/ton (down 263 yuan/ton), and the cost was 10,797 yuan/ton (up 323 yuan/ton) [33][37][44]. - Downstream Aluminum Alloy: Spot prices fell, inventory increased significantly, and passive de - stocking continued. As of July 18, 2025, the price was 20,100 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton), and the inventory was 37,200 tons (up 5800 tons) [46][48]. - Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell: Silicon wafer and battery cell prices fell, while polysilicon prices rose, but downstream acceptance was weak. As of July 18, 2025, the silicon wafer price was 1.17 yuan/piece (down 0.02 yuan/piece), and the battery cell price was 0.26 yuan/watt (down 0.02 yuan/watt) [53][55]. - Polysilicon Production Cost and Output: The cost of trichlorosilane (photovoltaic grade) remained flat, while the industrial silicon price increased, leading to higher production costs. In June 2025, the total output of polysilicon plants in China was 92,160 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons from the previous month (a 3.15% month - on - month decrease) [60][65].
工业硅多晶硅市场周报：双硅情绪驱动上行，利润丰厚引发套保-20250718
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-18 10:15