Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the Shanghai tin market has experienced a wide - range adjustment. Macro factors show that the US retail sales in June increased more than expected, while the EU is preparing for a potential escalation of the trade war. On the fundamental side, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the mining license approval, actual ore production will not start until the fourth quarter, and the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages. The smelting end faces raw material shortages and cost pressures, and the demand end is in a seasonal off - peak period. The tin price has been fluctuating widely recently, and downstream procurement is mainly at low prices. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range of 260,000 - 268,000 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai tin rebounded after a decline this week, with a weekly increase of 0.23% and an amplitude of 3.17%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 264,540 yuan/ton [6]. - Market Outlook: Macroeconomically, the US retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations. The EU is drafting a tariff list for US services. Fundamentally, the actual ore output in Myanmar will start in the fourth quarter, and the Congo's Bisie mine is resuming production. The smelting end has problems such as raw material shortages and cost pressures. The demand end is in an off - peak season. The tin price has been fluctuating widely, and downstream procurement is cautious. The domestic inventory has decreased slightly, while the LME de - stocking has slowed down. Technically, there is a divergence between long and short positions at a low position, and attention should be paid to the pressure of MA10 [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range of 260,000 - 268,000 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price Movement: As of July 18, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 264,540 yuan/ton, up 810 yuan/ton or 0.31% from July 11. As of July 17, 2025, the closing price of LME tin was 33,070 US dollars/ton, down 380 US dollars/ton or 1.14% from July 11. The spot premium remained stable [8][9]. - Ratio Change: As of July 18, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.19, the same as on July 11. As of July 17, 2025, the Shanghai - London tin ratio was 7.92, down 0.06 from July 10 [16]. - Position Change: As of July 18, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 126 lots, a decrease of 1186 lots from July 14. The trading volume of Shanghai tin was 49,232 lots, a decrease of 596 lots or 1.2% from July 11 [17][18]. 3.3 Industry Chain - Supply Side - Ore Import and Production: In May 2025, the monthly import of tin ore and concentrates was 13,448.80 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.4% and a year - on - year increase of 60.66%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 50,220.48 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.41%. In April 2025, the refined tin output was - 0.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 5.98 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% [23][24]. - Processing Fee: On July 18, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, the same as on July 11. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, also the same as on July 11. The average price of 40% tin concentrate decreased by 1,200 yuan/ton or 0.47%, and the average price of 60% tin concentrate decreased by 1,200 yuan/ton or 0.46% [27]. - Import Window: As of July 18, 2025, the tin import profit and loss was - 14.16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,887.01 yuan/ton from July 11. In May 2025, the refined tin import volume was 2,076.34 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 84.07% and a year - on - year increase of 226.14%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 10,869.42 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 27.52%. In May 2025, the refined tin export volume was 1,769.65 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.12% and a year - on - year increase of 18.01%. From January to May, the cumulative export was 9,739.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.71% [31][32]. - Inventory: As of July 18, 2025, the LME tin total inventory was 1,935 tons, a decrease of 35 tons or 1.78% from July 11. The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory was 7,148 tons, an increase of 51 tons or 0.72% from last week. The tin inventory for futures was 6,817 tons, an increase of 186 tons or 2.81% from July 11 [37]. - Demand Side - Semiconductor Index: On July 17, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 5,737.64, an increase of 29.37 or 0.51% from July 10. From January to June 2025, the integrated circuit output was 23,946,961,100 pieces, an increase of 3,236,412,000 pieces or 15.63% compared with the same period last year [42][43]. - Tin - Plated Sheet: As of May 2025, the tin - plated sheet output was 100,000 tons, the same as in April. The export volume was 173,578.75 tons, an increase of 27,066.23 tons or 18.47% from April [48].
沪锡市场周报：宏观利好需求淡季，预计锡价宽幅调整-20250718
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-18 10:15