Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic urea market declined weakly. By Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong dropped to 1,750 - 1,820 yuan/ton, with the average price down 45 yuan/ton week - on - week. Although the second batch of export quotas has been finalized, due to high pricing, the trading volume of small and medium - sized particles is limited, and the suspension of small - package urea exports has weakened market sentiment [6]. - Recently, new plants have been under maintenance, leading to a slight decrease in the daily domestic urea output. With few short - term maintenance plans and some plants restarting, the output is likely to increase. Domestic agricultural demand is advancing slowly, with only a small amount of demand for top - dressing in some areas, providing limited rigid support. As the production of autumn fertilizers is approaching, the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is rising steadily but slowly due to factors such as frequent raw material price fluctuations and inactive downstream purchasing. The operating rate of melamine has also rebounded, but weak downstream demand may limit further increases. Some urea enterprises' inventories are decreasing rapidly as export orders are being executed. Although local inventories vary, the overall inventory is decreasing, but it is still much higher than the same period in previous years. As the execution of previous export orders nears the end, the inventory reduction speed may slow down, but export expectations still support the price [6]. - It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1,720 - 1,780 yuan [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The domestic urea market declined weakly this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong dropped to 1,750 - 1,820 yuan/ton, with the average price down 45 yuan/ton week - on - week. The second - batch export quota had limited impact on trading volume due to high pricing, and the suspension of small - package urea exports weakened market sentiment [6]. - Market Outlook: New plant maintenance led to a slight decrease in daily output, but with few short - term maintenance plans and some plants restarting, output is likely to increase. Agricultural demand is slow, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer and melamine enterprises is rising but may be limited by downstream demand. Export orders are being executed, leading to inventory reduction, but the inventory reduction speed may slow down later, and export expectations support the price [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: Trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1,720 - 1,780 yuan [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 1.58% [10]. - As of July 18, the UR 9 - 1 spread was 25 [12]. - As of July 18, there were 2,523 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, a decrease of 122 from last week [20]. - Spot Market - As of July 17, the mainstream price in Shandong and Jiangsu was 1,800 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton [26]. - As of July 17, the FOB price of urea in China was 410 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [30]. - As of July 17, the urea basis was 57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from last week [34]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - Upstream - As of July 16, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal was 665 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week [38]. - As of July 17, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.51 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.14 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [38]. - Industry - As of July 17, China's urea output was 1.3687 million tons, a decrease of 13,100 tons from last week, a week - on - week decline of 0.95%. The average daily output was 195,500 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from last week. The urea capacity utilization rate was 84.46%, a week - on - week decline of 0.80%. Next cycle, the output is likely to increase [41]. - As of July 17, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 541,000 tons, an increase of 52,000 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 10.63%. As of July 16, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 895,500 tons, a decrease of 72,200 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 7.46% [45]. - In May 2025, urea exports were 2,436.99 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.18%, and the average export price was 209.07 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 29.54% [48]. - Downstream - As of July 17, the domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 32.55%, a week - on - week increase of 2.72 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of melamine was 64.24% on average this week, an increase of 1.68 percentage points from last week [51].
瑞达期货尿素市场周报-20250718
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-18 10:14