合成橡胶市场周报-20250718

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Strategy suggestion: The short - term price of the br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,350 - 11,900 [7]. - Market review: This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated upwards. The spot price ranged from 11,200 - 11,800 yuan/ton. The futures sentiment was bullish, and the transaction center of the spot market moved up. Sinopec and PetroChina raised the ex - factory prices by 100 - 300 yuan/ton. As of July 17, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price was 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton [8]. - Market outlook: The cost support for cis - butadiene rubber is weakening. Supply is expected to increase as most maintenance devices restart in mid - and late - July. The inventory of producers may rise due to downstream price - pressing. The tire industry's production is stabilizing, and the short - term opening rate is expected to have little change [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy: The br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,350 - 11,900 [7]. - Market review: The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market rose. The ex - factory prices of major companies were raised. The mainstream ex - factory price was 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton as of July 17 [8]. - Market outlook: Cost support is weakening, supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand is price - pressing. The tire industry's production is stabilizing [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract rose by 0.95% this week [12]. - Position analysis: No specific content provided. - Inter - period spread: As of July 18, the 8 - 9 spread of butadiene rubber was 25 [19]. - Warehouse receipts: As of July 18, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 2,100 tons, an increase of 500 tons from last week [22]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - Spot price: As of July 17, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week [27]. - Basis: As of July 17, the basis of butadiene rubber was 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 95 yuan/ton from last week [27]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - Naphtha and ethylene prices: As of July 17, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 574.75 dollars/ton, a decrease of 9.5 dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 820 dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [31]. - Butadiene: As of July 18, the weekly capacity utilization rate was 67.96%, a decrease of 0.8% from last week; the port inventory was 20,000 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from last week [34]. 3.3.2. Industry - Production and capacity utilization: In June 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 122,500 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons from last month. As of July 17, the weekly capacity utilization rate was 65.21%, a decrease of 0.32% from last week [38]. - Production profit: As of July 17, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production profit was - 632 yuan/ton, a decrease of 106 yuan/ton from last week [41]. - Inventory: As of July 18, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber social inventory was 32,250 tons, a decrease of 520 tons from last week; the producer inventory was 25,650 tons, a decrease of 850 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 6,600 tons, an increase of 330 tons from last week [44]. 3.3.3. Downstream - Tire opening rate: As of July 17, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, a month - on - month increase of 2.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.96 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.92 percentage points [47]. - Tire export: In May 2025, China's tire export volume was 758,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to May, the cumulative export was 3.4042 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [50]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis No information provided.