Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures main contract showed a weekly oscillatory and slightly stronger trend, with a weekly increase of 8.84% and an amplitude of 10.39%. The main contract was quoted at 69,960 yuan/ton [5]. - The macro - level policy focuses on promoting the high - quality development of the new energy vehicle industry and standardizing its competition order. In terms of fundamentals, the supply expectation of lithium carbonate has been repaired due to the mine rectification, and there are hedging opportunities in the futures market, with the lithium ore price rising accordingly. However, the demand side is still mainly for rigid consumption, and the spot market trading is light. The industrial inventory is at a high level and slightly accumulating [5]. - Overall, the lithium carbonate market is in a state where the expectation is repaired but the actual situation is still weak. More effective demand is needed to drive inventory reduction [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Performance: The lithium carbonate main contract was oscillatory and slightly stronger. The closing price was 69,960 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5,680 yuan/ton [5][11]. - Fundamentals: The supply expectation was repaired due to mine rectification, but the actual supply might decrease. The demand was mainly rigid, and the inventory was high and accumulating [5]. - Strategy: Light - position oscillatory trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to trading rhythm and risk control [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: As of July 18, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 69,960 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5,680 yuan/ton. The near - far month inter - period spread was - 80 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1,060 yuan/ton [11]. - Spot Price: As of July 18, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 66,650 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,900 yuan/ton. The main contract basis was - 3,310 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 2,780 yuan/ton [15]. 3.3 Upstream Market - Lithium Spodumene: As of July 18, 2025, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 708 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 12 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 7.1796, with a weekly increase of 0.03% [19]. - Lithium Mica: As of July 18, 2025, the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone was 5,825 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 425 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 1,781 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 45 yuan/ton [24]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Supply Side: As of May 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,145.78 tons, a decrease of 7,190.11 tons from April, a decline of 25.37% and a year - on - year decline of 13.92%. The monthly export volume was 286.735 tons, a decrease of 447.55 tons from April, a decline of 60.95% and a year - on - year increase of 34.96%. As of June 2025, the monthly output was 44,100 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from May, an increase of 4.75% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decline of 5% and a year - on - year decline of 32% [30]. - Demand Side - Hexafluorophosphate Lithium: As of July 18, 2025, the average price was 49,250 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 500 yuan/ton. As of June 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 161,150 tons, an increase of 2,650 tons from May, an increase of 1.67% and a year - on - year increase of 35.25% [33]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: As of the latest data this week, the average price was 30,450 yuan/ton, with no weekly change. As of June 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 203,300 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons from May, a decline of 3.24% and a year - on - year increase of 31.16%. The monthly operating rate was 52%, a month - on - month increase of 3% and no year - on - year change [37]. - Ternary Materials: As of June 2025, the monthly output was 59,000 tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons from May, a decline of 9.51% and a year - on - year increase of 13.46%. The monthly operating rate was 51%, a month - on - month decline of 4% and a year - on - year decline of 4%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 remained stable [40]. - Lithium Manganate: As of June 2025, the monthly output was 10,800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from May, a decline of 2.7% and a year - on - year increase of 61.19%. As of the latest data this week, the average price was 28,500 yuan/ton, with no weekly change [45]. - Lithium Cobaltate: As of June 2025, the monthly output was 12,400 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from May, a decline of 5.34% and a year - on - year increase of 58.97%. As of the latest data this week, the average price was 220,000 yuan/ton, with no weekly change [48]. - Application Side - New Energy Vehicles: As of June 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 44.32%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.33% and a year - on - year increase of 9.12%. The monthly output was 1,268,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%; the monthly sales volume was 1,329,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 1.68% [50]. - New Energy Vehicle Exports: As of June 2025, the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 1.06 million, a year - on - year increase of 75.21% [56]. 3.5 Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is 0.07, indicating a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and the fundamental situation, it is recommended to build a long straddle option to bet on increasing volatility [61].
碳酸锂市场周报：供需偏弱VS预期改善，锂价仍将谨慎交易-20250718
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-18 10:27