苹果市场周报：低库存支撑明显，价格稳中趋强-20250718

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 0.97% on a weekly basis. New - season apple production is expected to be 3736.64 million tons, a 2.35% increase from the 2024 - 2025 production season. As of July 16, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 80.60 million tons, with a slightly improved shipping speed. Current inventory is at a five - year low, and the purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased year - on - year, strongly supporting prices. However, the large - scale listing of summer fruits has impacted apple demand, resulting in insufficient price momentum. In the short term, the price is expected to show a slightly stronger oscillatory trend. [5] - It is recommended to go long on the Apple 2510 contract on dips. Future trading should focus on inventory clearance rate, consumption, and new - crop production. [6][7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - Apple Futures 2510 price rose 0.97% this week. New - season apple production is estimated to increase by 2.35%. As of July 16, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory decreased by 10.89 million tons week - on - week. Shandong's warehouse capacity ratio decreased by 1.06%, and Shaanxi's decreased by 1.09%. Inventory is at a five - year low, and early - maturing variety prices are up year - on - year, but summer fruits impact demand. The short - term price trend is slightly stronger with oscillations. [5] - It is recommended to go long on the Apple 2510 contract on dips. Future trading should focus on inventory clearance rate, consumption, and new - crop production. [6][7] 3.2 Futures Market - This week, the price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 0.88%. As of this week, the net long position of the top 20 in apple futures was 6850 lots, and the number of apple futures warehouse receipts was 0. [10][16] 3.3 Spot Market - As of July 18, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmer's goods of bagged Red Fuji in Qixia, Shandong was 4 yuan per jin; the price of bagged Fuji apples of 75 and above in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.4 yuan per jin. [19] 3.4 Industry Chain Supply - side - As of July 16, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 80.60 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.89 million tons. Shandong's warehouse capacity ratio was 12.15%, a 1.06% decrease from last week; Shaanxi's was 4.63%, a 1.09% decrease from last week. [25] Demand - side - As of July 18, the average daily morning arrival of vehicles at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was 0.7 yuan per jin. [29] - As of July 11, 2025, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.66 yuan per kilogram, a 1.26% week - on - week increase; the wholesale price of apples was 9.75 yuan per kilogram, a 0.10% week - on - week decrease. [33] - As of July 11, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of 5 kinds of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, tangerines, pears, and watermelons) was 7.33 yuan per kilogram, a 0.27% week - on - week decrease. [37] - In May 2023, China's fresh apple exports were 3.94 million tons, a 26.36% month - on - month decline from April and a 9.22% year - on - year decline from May 2022. [41] 3.5 Option Market - Information on the implied volatility of at - the - money apple options this week is presented in a graph, but no specific data is given. [42] 3.6 Futures - Stock Correlation - Information on the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit is presented in a graph, but no specific data is given. [44]