沪镍不锈钢市场周报：供需两弱去库不佳，镍不锈钢震荡承压-20250718

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are facing a situation of weak supply and demand, with poor inventory reduction, and are under oscillatory pressure [9]. - For nickel, macro - factors include the US retail sales growth and potential EU - US trade war. Fundamentally, supply costs are rising, and some non - integrated smelters are reducing production due to profit losses. Demand from the stainless - steel and battery sectors is weak, and inventories are rising [9]. - For stainless steel, although the cost of raw materials is decreasing, steel mills are increasing production cuts due to losses. Demand is weak in the traditional off - season, and inventory reduction is not ideal [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Nickel: This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel oscillated and adjusted, with a weekly decline of 0.73% and an amplitude of 2.38%. The closing price was 120,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or short lightly on rallies [9]. - Stainless Steel: This week, stainless steel oscillated and adjusted, with a weekly increase of 0.12% and an amplitude of 1.42%. The closing price was 12,725 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Price: As of July 18, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week; the average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) was 900 yuan/nickel, unchanged from last week. The closing price of Shanghai nickel was 120,500 yuan/ton, down 890 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 12,725 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from last week [15]. - Basis: As of July 18, the electrolytic nickel spot price was 121,500 yuan/ton, with a basis of 1,000 yuan/ton; the stainless - steel basis was 600 yuan/ton [19]. - Price Ratio: As of July 18, the price ratio of Shanghai nickel to stainless steel was 9.47, down 0.08 from last week; the price ratio of Shanghai tin to nickel was 2.2 yuan/ton, up 0.02 from last week [23]. - Net Long Positions: As of July 18, the net long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel decreased by 6,436 lots compared to July 14, and the net long positions of the top 20 in stainless steel increased by 5,070 lots [31]. 3.3. Industry Chain - Supply Side - Nickel Ore: As of July 11, the nickel ore inventory at major ports was 896,490 wet tons, up 2.83% from last week [34]. - Electrolytic Nickel: In April 2025, the electrolytic nickel output was 36,450 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.46%. In May 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 17,687.576 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.65%, and the cumulative import from January to May was 78,738.983 tons, a year - on - year increase of 121.39% [39]. - Inventory: As of July 18, the LME nickel inventory was 21,560 tons, up 1,118 tons from last week; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 25,277 tons, up 230 tons from last week [41][44]. - Demand Side - Stainless Steel Production: In June 2025, the total output of stainless crude steel was 329.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.95%. Among them, the output of 400 - series was 558,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.48%; the output of 300 - series was 1.744 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.28%; the output of 200 - series was 989,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.35% [48]. - Stainless Steel Trade: In May 2025, the stainless - steel import volume was 122,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,000 tons; the export volume was 360,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20,100 tons [48]. - Regional Inventory: As of July 18, the stainless - steel inventory in Foshan was 320,410 tons, down 20,449 tons from last week; the inventory in Wuxi was 595,917 tons, up 6,112 tons from last week [52]. - Stainless Steel Profit: As of July 18, the stainless - steel production profit was - 8 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton from last week [56]. - Downstream Industries - Real Estate: From January to June 2025, the new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the housing completion area was 225.6661 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.8% [60]. - Home Appliances: In June 2025, the air - conditioner output was 28.3831 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.18%; the refrigerator output was 9.0474 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.78%; the washing - machine output was 9.5079 million units, a year - on - year increase of 16.57%; the freezer output was 2.4139 million units, a year - on - year increase of 18.82% [60]. - Automotive: In June 2025, the output of new - energy vehicles was 2.794 million, a year - on - year increase of 28.7%; the sales volume was 2.904 million, a year - on - year increase of 35.2% [64]. - Machinery: In June 2025, the excavator output was 26,810 units, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%; the output of large and medium - sized tractors was 21,662 units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.55%; the output of small tractors was 10,000 units, unchanged year - on - year [64].