Report Overview - Report Title: "2025.07.18 - Weekly Report on the Pig Market: Expected Range-bound Fluctuations in Pig Prices" [2] - Researcher: Zhang Xin - Industry: Pig Market 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Pig prices showed a trend of first falling and then rising, with the main contract declining by 1.46% on a weekly basis. In the short term, increased supply and weak demand will suppress price fluctuations. However, as prices weaken, it may stimulate the sentiment of farmers to hold prices and attract secondary fattening, and the slaughter rhythm may slow down again at the end of the month, limiting the downside space. Overall, the market is expected to show a volatile trend, and short - term prices will change with the slaughter and secondary fattening entry and exit rhythms. The recommended strategy is range trading or waiting and seeing [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Summary - Market Review: Pig prices first declined and then rose, with the main contract down 1.46% weekly [7]. - Market Outlook: Supply increased as the slaughter rhythm of farmers recovered in mid - month and the proportion of large pigs for slaughter accelerated due to high - temperature and rainy weather in the South. Demand was weak as high temperatures reduced people's willingness to buy pork, schools were on holiday, and the terminal sales were slow, leading to a continuous decline in the slaughterhouse operating rate, although it was higher than the same period last year. Overall, short - term supply increase and weak demand will suppress price fluctuations, but lower prices may stimulate farmers' price - holding sentiment and attract secondary fattening, and the slaughter rhythm may slow down at the end of the month, limiting the downside space. - Strategy Recommendation: Range trading or waiting and seeing [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price Trend: Futures prices first declined and then rose, with the main contract down 1.46% weekly [11]. - Net Position and Warehouse Receipts: As of July 18, the net short position of the top 20 holders in pig futures was 16,156 lots, a decrease of 721 lots from the previous week, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 284, a decrease of 3 from the previous week [17]. 3.3 Spot Market - Base Difference: The basis of the September contract was 65 yuan/ton, and the basis of the November contract was 565 yuan/ton this week [21]. - Pig and Piglet Prices: The national average price of live pigs was 14.81 yuan/kg this week, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous week but an increase of 2.35% from the previous month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 34.03 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week and the same period last month [28]. - Pork and Sow Prices: On July 10, the national average market price of pork was 25.35 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.52 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [32]. - Pig - Grain Ratio: As of the week of July 9, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 6.27, an increase of 0.06 from the previous week, but still below the break - even point [36]. 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Upstream - Sow Inventory: In May 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 heads (0.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 1.15%, reaching 103.6% of the normal inventory. In June, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms increased slightly by 0.29% month - on - month and 4.20% year - on - year, and in small and medium - sized farms, it increased slightly by 0.17% month - on - month and 7.05% year - on - year [41]. - Pig Inventory: In Q2 2023, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, an increase of 7.16 million heads from the end of the previous quarter and 9.14 million heads year - on - year. In May, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 0.30% month - on - month, and in small and medium - sized farms, it increased by 0.57% month - on - month [44]. - Slaughter Volume: In June, according to Mysteel data, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms was 10.7682 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.60% and a year - on - year increase of 23.60%, while in small and medium - sized farms, it was 487,700 heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.40% but a year - on - year increase of 57.41%. The average slaughter weight of live pigs this week was 123.49 kg, a slight decrease of 0.01 kg from the previous week [47]. 3.4.2 Industry Profit - Pig Farming Profit: As of July 18, the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 18.66 yuan/head, a decrease of 50.26 yuan/head from the previous week; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 90.89 yuan/head, a decrease of 42.98 yuan/head from the previous week [52]. - Poultry Farming Profit: As of July 18, the profit of egg - laying hens was a loss of 0.47 yuan/head, a decrease in loss of 0.22 yuan/head from the previous week, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was a loss of 0.56 yuan/head [52]. 3.4.3 Import - In the first six months of 2025, China imported a total of 540,000 tons of pork, with an average monthly import of 90,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.88%, which was at a historically low level during the same period [57]. 3.4.4 Substitutes - As of the week of July 11, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. As of the week of July 17, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.19 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous week [61]. 3.4.5 Feed - Feed Price: As of July 17, the spot price of soybean meal was 2938.86 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the price of corn was 2409.12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.45 yuan/ton from the previous week [66]. - Feed Index and Price: As of July 18, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 944.59, an increase of 0.7% from the previous week. This week, the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [70]. - Feed Output: As of June 2025, the monthly feed output was 2.9377 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 175,600 tons [75]. 3.4.6 CPI - As of June 2025, the year - on - year increase in CPI was 0.1% [79]. 3.4.7 Downstream - Slaughterhouse Operating Rate and Cold Storage Capacity: In the 29th week, the operating rate of slaughterhouses was 25.15%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points from the previous week but 5.94 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of Thursday this week, the cold storage capacity of key domestic slaughterhouses was 17.44%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points from the previous week [82]. - Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption: As of May 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 32.16 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 4.52%. In June 2025, the national catering revenue was 47.076 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [87]. 3.5 Pig - Related Stocks - The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [88].
生猪市场周报：预计生猪价格区间波动-20250718
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-18 10:21