瑞达期货甲醇市场周报-20250718

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2420 in the short term [7]. - Recently, the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production cuts in the domestic methanol industry is more than the output of restored production capacity, resulting in a slight decrease in overall production [8]. - The inventory of domestic methanol enterprises showed differences this week. Some enterprises continued to accumulate inventory due to weak downstream demand, while the overall inventory decreased as some olefin plants consumed the accumulated methanol inventory. The methanol port inventory continued to accumulate [8]. - In terms of demand, some olefin plants are under maintenance, while the operating load of enterprises in East China has slightly increased. The overall operating rate of the olefin industry is expected to increase slightly in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - Market Performance: The domestic port methanol market fluctuated slightly this week, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2350 - 2400 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2380 - 2410 yuan/ton. The inland market showed regional differentiation, with prices in Ordos North Line ranging from 1973 - 1990 yuan/ton and in Dongying from 2245 - 2250 yuan/ton. The price in the Guanzhong area was weak [8]. - Market Outlook: The overall domestic methanol production decreased slightly. The inventory of inland enterprises showed differences, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The overall operating rate of the olefin industry is expected to increase slightly in the short term [8]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price Movement: The price of the main methanol futures contract in Zhengzhou fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 0.21% [12]. - Inter - month Spread: As of July 18, the MA 9 - 1 spread was - 69 [16]. - Open Interest Analysis: No specific analysis results were mentioned in the provided content. - Warehouse Receipts: As of July 18, there were 8544 methanol warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou, a decrease of 146 compared to last week [23]. 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic Spot Price: As of July 18, the mainstream price in Taicang, East China was 2387.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton compared to last week; the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia, Northwest China was 1982.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton compared to last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 405 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton compared to last week [29]. - Foreign Spot Price: As of July 17, the CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 275 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton compared to last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the main Chinese port was 58 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [35]. - Basis: As of July 18, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was 22.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared to last week [39]. 3.4 Industrial Chain - Upstream: As of July 16, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 665 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton compared to last week. As of July 17, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.51 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.14 US dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [42]. - Industry: As of July 17, China's methanol production was 1,869,725 tons, a decrease of 30,003 tons compared to last week, and the capacity utilization rate was 82.69%, a decrease of 1.58% month - on - month [46]. - Inventory: As of July 16, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 790,200 tons, an increase of 71,300 tons compared to the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 352,300 tons, a decrease of 0.46% compared to the previous period; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 243,100 tons, an increase of 9.89% compared to the previous period [49]. - Import: In May 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.2923 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 64.06%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.3694 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.43%. As of July 17, the methanol import profit was - 2.79 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.92 yuan/ton compared to last week [53]. - Downstream: As of July 17, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 86.23%, a month - on - month increase of 0.27%. As of July 18, the domestic methanol - to - olefin profit was - 882 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan/ton compared to last week [56][60].