玉米类市场周报：拍卖成交继续降温，期货盘面触底回升-20250718

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn futures rebounded after hitting the bottom this week, with the closing price of the main 2509 contract at 2314 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton from the previous week. The international corn price is under continuous pressure due to the good initial growth rate of US corn. In the domestic market, the auction volume of imported corn is decreasing, and the actual transaction is not ideal, with prices showing a slight downward trend. The decline has slowed down recently [7]. - Dalian corn starch futures rebounded after hitting the bottom, with the closing price of the main 2509 contract at 2658 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous week. Affected by continuous losses in production, the industry's operating rate is at a low level, reducing supply pressure. However, demand is weak, and inventory has increased. The decline has also slowed down recently [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Corn - Strategy: Trade short - term [6][10] - Market review: The main 2509 contract of corn futures closed at 2314 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton from the previous week [7] - Outlook: High initial growth rate of US corn puts pressure on international prices. In China, auction volume is decreasing, and downstream demand is weak, with prices slightly weakening [7] - Corn Starch - Strategy: Participate short - term [10] - Market review: The main 2509 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2658 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous week [11] - Outlook: Low operating rate due to losses reduces supply pressure, but demand is weak, and inventory has increased [11] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Position Changes - Corn futures' September contract rebounded after hitting the bottom, with a total position of 1067675 lots, an increase of 36775 lots from the previous week [17] - Corn starch futures' September contract rebounded after hitting the bottom, with a total position of 261814 lots, an increase of 13950 lots from the previous week [17] - Net Position Changes of the Top Twenty - The net short position of corn futures' top twenty increased, with this week's net position at - 32519, compared to - 30902 last week [23] - The net short position of corn starch futures' top twenty increased, with this week's net position at - 13718, compared to - 9506 last week [23] - Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn are 178283 lots [29] - The registered warehouse receipts of corn starch are 12334 lots [29] - Spot Price and Basis - As of July 17, 2025, the average spot price of corn is 2409.12 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active September contract and the spot average price is + 95 yuan/ton [34] - The spot price of corn starch in Jilin is 2850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong is 2900 yuan/ton, with a slight decline this week. The basis between the September contract and the Jilin Changchun spot is 192 yuan/ton [38] - Futures Inter - monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of corn futures is 70 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [45] - The 9 - 1 spread of corn starch futures is 41 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [45] - Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the September contracts of starch and corn is 344 yuan/ton. In the 29th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch is 390 yuan/ton, narrowing 20 yuan/ton compared to last week [54] - Substitute Spread - As of July 17, 2025, the average spot price of wheat is 2441.33 yuan/ton, and that of corn is 2409.12 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 32.21 yuan/ton [59] - In the 29th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 179 yuan/ton, widening 40 yuan/ton compared to last week [59] 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - Corn - Supply Side - As of July 11, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port is 83.8 tons, a decrease of 4.80 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory is 1.1 tons, a decrease of 0.20 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports is 230.6 tons, a decrease of 29.0 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume is 60.2 tons, an increase of 18.40 tons week - on - week [49] - In May 2025, China's ordinary corn imports were 19.00 tons, a decrease of 86.00 tons (81.90%) compared to the same period last year, and an increase of 1.00 tons compared to the previous month [67] - As of July 17, the average inventory of national feed enterprises is 31.34 days, a decrease of 0.24 days from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.76%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.19% [71] - Demand Side - As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory is 41731 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of May, the breeding sow inventory is 4042 million, a month - on - month increase of 4 million, and a year - on - year increase of 1.15% [75] - As of July 11, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit is 133.87 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets is 31.6 yuan/head [78] - As of July 17, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin is - 72 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan is - 373 yuan/ton, in Jilin is - 480 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang is - 111 yuan/ton [83] - Corn Starch - Supply Side - As of July 16, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions is 427 tons, a decrease of 3.74% [87] - From July 10 - 16, 2025, the national corn processing volume is 53.78 tons, an increase of 0.11 tons from last week; the national corn starch output is 26.02 tons, an increase of 0.08 tons from last week; the operating rate is 50.29%, an increase of 0.15% from last week [91] - As of July 16, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises is 134.6 tons, an increase of 0.90 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.67%, a month - on - month increase of 2.83%, and a year - on - year increase of 26.27% [91] 3.4 Option Market Analysis - As of July 18, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2509 contract of corn is 9.54%, an increase of 1.87% from last week's 7.67%. The implied volatility has rebounded this week and is at a slightly higher level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [94]