鸡蛋市场周报：现货低位小幅回升，期货盘面窄幅震荡-20250718

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report recommends a light - position trial long on far - month contracts [7]. - Currently, the egg market has high egg - laying hen inventory, large new - laying hen pressure from previous replenishment, sufficient egg supply, high storage costs due to hot and humid weather, cautious downstream purchases, low egg prices, and continuous losses for farmers. However, as prices reach a low level, the old - hen culling process has accelerated, reducing inventory expectations. High temperatures in many areas have led to a decline in the laying rate, alleviating short - term supply pressure. Terminal demand is gradually recovering, and the farmers' expectation of price increases has promoted a low - level rebound in egg prices. The futures market has also seen a slowdown in the decline due to the stabilization of the spot market [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy: Light - position trial long on far - month contracts [7]. - Market review: This week, the egg futures 09 contract closed up in a volatile manner, with a closing price of 3595 yuan/500 kg, an increase of 15 yuan/500 kg from the previous week. The current situation is a high inventory of egg - laying hens, large new - laying hen pressure, sufficient supply, high storage costs, cautious downstream purchases, low egg prices, and continuous losses for farmers. But as prices are low, the culling of old hens has accelerated, high temperatures have reduced the laying rate, short - term supply pressure has eased, terminal demand is recovering, and this has promoted a rebound in egg prices. The futures decline has also slowed [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures price and positions: The egg futures 09 contract rose slightly in a volatile manner, with a position of 257,912 lots, an increase of 27,276 lots from the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 28,627, with little change from the previous week's - 28,851 [14]. - Futures warehouse receipts: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [18]. - Spot price and basis: The egg spot price was 3036 yuan/500 kg, an increase of 440 yuan/500 kg from the previous week. The basis between the active 09 contract futures price and the spot average price was - 559 yuan/ton [24]. - Futures inter - month spread: The egg 9 - 1 spread was - 7 yuan/500 kg, at a relatively low level in the same period [28]. - Related product prices: As of July 17, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.63 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 4.38 yuan/kg [34]. 3.3 Industry Chain - Supply side: As of May 31, 2025, the national egg - laying hen inventory index was 110.89, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30%; the national new - chick index was 106.78, a month - on - month decrease of 23.00% [40]. - Culling: As of May 31, 2025, the national culled egg - laying hen index was 108.68, a month - on - month increase of 12.32%; the average culling age of hens was 506 days [44]. - Feed raw materials: As of July 17, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2409.12 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2870 yuan/ton [48]. - Feed price and breeding profit: As of July 11, 2025, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.69 yuan/hen, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.72 yuan/kg [55]. - Egg - laying hen chicks and culled hens: As of July 11, 2025, the average price of egg - laying hen chicks in the main production areas was 3.9 yuan/chick, and the average price of culled hens was 9.2 yuan/kg [57]. - Egg exports: In May 2025, China's egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, an increase of 927.30 tons (7.87%) year - on - year compared with 11,784.06 tons in the same period last year, and a decrease of 81.14 tons month - on - month compared with 12,792.51 tons in the previous month [63].