硅锰市场周报：预期较好商品反弹，关税仍存不确定性-20250718

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon manganese market is expected to oscillate. Macro factors, such as the emphasis on promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity by the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, have improved commodity sentiment. Fundamentally, the inventory is moderately high, and the steel demand is in the off - season, with macro factors having a greater impact [6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - Macro Aspect: From July 14th to 15th, the Central Urban Work Conference emphasized the transition of urban development to the "stock quality improvement and efficiency enhancement stage". The China National Coal Association stressed coal supply quality. Jiangsu plans to increase the proportion of short - process steelmaking output. In 2025, coal consumption is expected to decline by about 5% compared to 2020. Overseas, Trump reached an agreement with Indonesia, and the US 6 - month PPI growth was lower than expected [6]. - Supply and Demand: Manufacturer's operating rate rebounded from a low level, with moderately high inventory. The port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 7.70 tons, and downstream hot metal production was at a high level. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 90 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was - 110 yuan/ton [6]. - Technical Aspect: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract was below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - Strategy Suggestion: Treat the silicon manganese market as oscillating, as macro factors have a greater impact than fundamentals due to the off - season of steel demand and moderately high inventory [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: The open interest decreased by 21,000 lots, and the monthly spread decreased by 18 points. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 5,106, and the spread between the manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon September contracts increased by 10 [8][12][14]. - Spot Market: The Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot price increased by 30 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 174 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 [22]. 3. Industry Chain Situation - Manufacturer: The operating rate declined slightly, but the daily output increased. The demand from the five major steel products decreased by 1.24%, while the national silicon - manganese supply increased by 0.31%. The manufacturer's inventory decreased by 4,500 tons [25][30]. - Upstream: The Inner Mongolia electricity fee increased by 0.01 yuan/kWh, and the Australian manganese ore price increased by 3 yuan/ton - degree. The port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 7.70 tons. The spot production profit in the northern region was - 100 yuan/ton, and in the southern region was - 410 yuan/ton [32][36][45]. - Downstream: The hot metal production was at a high level, and the July silicon - manganese steel procurement price increased by 200 yuan/ton [47][49].