贵金属市场周报-20250718

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market will maintain a short - term tug - of - war, with the core contradiction being the game between the inflation rhythm pushed up by tariffs and the Fed's policy expectations. Trump's tariff increases have initially raised business costs. If the tariff scope expands or the August 1 negotiation fails, it may accelerate inflation and boost gold. However, the US economic resilience shown in June CPI and retail data may make the Fed maintain a wait - and - see attitude, limiting the upside of gold prices. The market focuses on the September rate - cut expectation, but if real interest rates do not fall as expected, gold prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term. The long - term support for gold remains valid [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: At the beginning of the week, Trump's 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico spurred safe - haven buying, but the market's expectation of negotiation easing diluted the increase. US June CPI core commodity inflation showed an initial rise, but overall CPI was lower than expected. The stagnant PPI growth in June led to a mid - week rebound. Near the weekend, strong retail sales boosted the dollar and suppressed gold, but Trump's 25% tariff on Japan reignited safe - haven demand. Gold prices remained high - level volatile. Central bank gold purchases and ETF inflows provided long - term support, while CFTC speculative net - long position reduction indicated short - term profit - taking pressure. Silver was relatively firm due to strong semiconductor demand but limited by weakening photovoltaic demand [8]. - Market Outlook: The precious metals market will remain in a short - term tug - of - war. If tariffs expand or the negotiation fails, it may accelerate inflation and boost gold. However, the US economic resilience may make the Fed wait and see, limiting gold's upside. The market focuses on the September rate - cut, but if real interest rates do not fall, gold may continue to fluctuate. Long - term support for gold remains valid [8]. - Operation Suggestion: In the short term, pay attention to the correction risk. For the next week, the SHFE gold 2510 contract is expected to trade between 750 - 800 yuan/gram, the SHFE silver 2510 contract between 9000 - 9300 yuan/kg. For overseas markets, COMEX gold futures are expected to trade between 3300 - 3400 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver futures between 38 - 39 US dollars/ounce [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Price Movement: Gold prices continued to fluctuate and ended the week higher, silver prices rose. There was a divergence between domestic and overseas markets. As of July 18, 2025, COMEX silver was at 38.555 US dollars/ounce, down 1.03% week - on - week; SHFE silver 2510 contract was at 9273 yuan/kg, up 2.84% week - on - week. COMEX gold was at 3344.2 US dollars/ounce, down 0.59% week - on - week; SHFE gold 2510 contract was at 777.02 yuan/gram, up 0.49% week - on - week [11]. - ETF Holdings: As of July 17, 2025, the SLV silver ETF holdings were 14695 tons, down 1.3% week - on - week; the SPDR gold ETF holdings were 948.50 tons, basically unchanged from the previous week [15]. - COMEX Net Positions: As of July 8, 2025, COMEX gold total positions were 443144 contracts, up 1.25% week - on - week, and net positions were 202968 contracts, up 0.49% week - on - week. COMEX silver total positions were 162803 contracts, down 0.47% week - on - week, and net positions were 58521 contracts, down 7.70% week - on - week [21]. - CFTC Positions: As of July 8, 2025, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 261685 contracts, up 1.2% week - on - week, and non - commercial short positions were 58717 contracts, up 3.6% week - on - week [27]. - Basis: As of July 17, 2025, the gold basis was - 5.36 yuan/gram, down 25.82% week - on - week; the silver basis was - 43 yuan/kg, down 258.33% week - on - week [30]. - Inventory: As of July 17, 2025, COMEX gold inventory was 37143884.29 ounces, up 0.99% week - on - week; SHFE gold inventory was 24585 kg, up 14.58% week - on - week. COMEX silver inventory was 496635874 ounces, down 0.30% week - on - week; SHFE silver inventory was 1303593 kg, down 2.70% week - on - week [35]. 3.3 Industrial Supply and Demand - Silver Industry: As of May 2025, Chinese silver imports decreased by 2.46% month - on - month to 273741.39 kg, while silver ore imports increased by 10.54% month - on - month to 136237148 kg. As of June 2025, due to soaring semiconductor silver demand, integrated circuit production increased by 15.80% year - on - year to 4506000 pieces [41][45]. - Silver Supply and Demand: In 2024, silver industrial demand was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; coin and net bar demand was 190.9 million ounces, down 22% year - on - year; silver ETF net investment demand was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the previous year; total silver demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year. Total silver supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2% year - on - year, and the supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% year - on - year [51][55]. - Gold Industry: Gold prices were mainly volatile. As of July 17, 2025, the China Gold recycling price was 769.9 yuan/gram, down 0.21% week - on - week. The gold prices of Laofengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Saturday Fu were basically stable [59]. - Gold Supply and Demand: In the first quarter of 2025, gold industrial (technology) demand was 7396.6 ounces, gold investment demand was 50741 ounces, up 71.93% quarter - on - quarter; gold jewelry demand was 39899.9 ounces, down 10.47% quarter - on - quarter; total gold demand was 120440.4 ounces, up 7.12% quarter - on - quarter [65]. 3.4 Macroeconomic and Options - Macroeconomic Data: This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield continued to rebound due to strong CPI inflation and retail data. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread widened, the CBOE gold volatility increased, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio declined slightly. The 10 - year US break - even inflation rate rose. In July 2025, the Chinese central bank increased its gold reserves by about 1.86 tons, the eighth consecutive month of increase [67][72][76][80].