Report Date - The report was released on July 18, 2025 [1] Core Views Palm Oil - International Market: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures broke through the annual line resistance of 4,250 ringgit after a brief consolidation and are expected to rise further to the 4,350 - 4,400 ringgit range. After a short - term resistance, it may retrace to 4,200 ringgit. If it effectively retraces and stabilizes at 4,200 ringgit, there is still a chance to strengthen again. The upward trend remains good, and the view is mainly bullish with fluctuations [3]. - Domestic Market: The Dalian palm oil futures continued to rise due to the boost from the Malaysian market. The price is approaching 9,000 yuan and may briefly break through 9,000 yuan and even reach 9,100 yuan. It will then fluctuate around 9,000 yuan. If it effectively stands above 9,000 yuan, there is still room for further upward movement. The current strong characteristics are obvious, with a bullish view but attention should be paid to the fluctuation rhythm and whether it can break through and stand above 9,000 yuan [3]. Soybean Oil - The downstream demand for soybean oil is weak despite the rising futures price. Some traders offer fixed - price quotes, which drags down the basis quotes. In the short term, the futures still have some upward space, which will continue to affect the spot basis quotes. However, starting from August, market demand is expected to pick up, and with the expected reduction in soybean supply in the fourth quarter, the forward basis quotes will be supported [4]. Bean Meal - In addition to the influence of US soybeans, foreign capital seats such as Qiankun and Morgan significantly reduced short positions and increased long positions, with a net position shift from short to long and a daily position transfer of up to 52,000 lots. China's slow procurement progress in the fourth quarter also provides support. In the short term, attention should be paid to the previous high pressure area of 3,050 - 3,080 yuan. The spot price of oil mills increased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton, and some terminal buyers' wait - and - see attitude has loosened, with local transactions potentially increasing. However, due to the current ample supply, traders are mainly selling actively [16] Price and Spread Information Oil Price and Spread - Palm Oil: The prices of palm oil futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 8,776 yuan/ton, 8,548 yuan/ton, and 8,796 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.83%, 0.68%, and 0.85%. The BMD palm oil main contract is at 4,292 ringgit/ton, up 1.95%. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou is 8,940 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan [7]. - Soybean Oil: The prices of soybean oil futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 8,118 yuan/ton, 7,734 yuan/ton, and 8,160 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.79%, 0.73%, and 0.89%. The CBOT soybean oil main contract is at 56.15 cents/pound, up 2.71%. The price of Shandong first - grade soybean oil is 8,190 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [12]. - Oil Spreads: Various spreads such as P 1 - 5, P 5 - 9, Y - P 01, etc. are provided, showing different price changes and percentage changes [5] Meal Price and Spread - Futures Prices: The prices of bean meal futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 3,078, 2,744, and 3,056 respectively, with daily increases of 0.79%, 0.73%, and 0.89%. The prices of rapeseed meal futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2,394, 2,352, and 2,722 respectively, with daily increases of 0.29%, 0.51%, and 0.11% [17]. - Meal Spreads: Information on spreads such as M01 - 05, M05 - 09, RM01 - 05, etc. is provided, along with the prices of bean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions and their basis quotes [20] Other Information - The report provides price and spread data for various oil and meal products, including palm oil, soybean oil, bean meal, and rapeseed meal, as well as information on international soybean and rapeseed crushing profits sourced from Wind [5][7][12][17][20][28]
油脂油料产业日报-20250718
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2025-07-18 12:28