黑色产业链日报-20250718

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the steel market, with optimistic domestic and overseas macro - environments and coking coal price concessions as a supporting factor, the steel futures market is rising. The downstream's enthusiasm for covering short positions and spot - futures trading has increased, and steel mills' orders are good. The market is expected to remain strong in the short term [3]. - For iron ore, its short - term fundamentals are strengthening. Although there may be a slight weakening in the long - term, the contradictions are not significant. With high inventory, potential for increased shipments, and stable steel mill demand, it is still considered strong in the short term [20]. - Regarding coal and coke, the short - term market may continue to be strong due to the current good profitability of downstream steel mills. However, in the long - term, the supply - demand gap of coking coal will narrow, and the high iron - making rate may not be sustainable [29]. - In the ferroalloy market, driven by anti - cut - throat competition sentiment, it has been rising slowly. But considering the weakening cost and downstream demand in the off - season, it is expected to be weak in the long - term, with possible fluctuations [46]. - For soda ash, due to the expected disturbances and fundamental limitations, it is rising in a volatile manner. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to unexpected or policy - related factors [58]. - In the glass market, the price has moved up. The supply side has a co - existence of ignition and cold - repair, and the market needs to observe the improvement of market sentiment and the real downstream demand [89]. Summary by Directory Steel - Futures Prices: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3191, 3207, and 3147 yuan/ton respectively, and those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3320, 3327, and 3310 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - Spot Prices: On July 18, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3319 yuan/ton, and the aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3340 yuan/ton [6][8]. - Spread: The 01 - 05 spread of rebar was - 16 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil was - 7 yuan/ton on July 18, 2025 [4]. Iron Ore - Futures Prices: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 753, 730, and 785 yuan/ton respectively [21]. - Spot Prices: On July 18, 2025, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 773 yuan/ton [21]. - Fundamentals: The daily average pig iron output on July 18, 2025, was 242.44 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 13785.21 tons [24]. Coal and Coke - Futures Prices: On July 18, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was - 49.5 yuan/ton, and the coke 09 - 01 spread was - 45 yuan/ton [30]. - Spot Prices: On July 18, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur primary coking coal was 1300 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1030 yuan/ton [31]. - Profit and Spread: The on - site coking profit on July 18, 2025, was 73 yuan/ton, and the main ore - coke ratio was 0.517 [30]. Ferroalloy - Silicon Iron: On July 18, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 72 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was - 60 yuan/ton [49]. - Silicon Manganese: On July 18, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 176 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was - 28 yuan/ton [50]. Soda Ash - Futures Prices: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1306, 1216, and 1265 yuan/ton respectively [60]. - Spot Prices: On July 18, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton [61]. Glass - Futures Prices: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1240, 1081, and 1165 yuan/ton respectively [90]. - Spot Prices: On July 18, 2025, the 05 - contract basis in Shahe was - 74 yuan/ton [90]. - Production and Sales: From July 8 - 13, 2025, the production - sales ratio in Shahe ranged from 91% to 120%, and in Hubei from 92% to 163% [92].