摩根士丹利：亚洲&新兴市场股市过山车迎来又一个高峰？随着改革推进，韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI）目标更新；中国 “反内卷” 行动 + 中印最新宏观 政策趋势

Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook on the South Korean stock market despite potential foreign investor sell-off pressure and tariff risks, suggesting a cautious approach for investors in emerging markets [1][4]. Core Insights - The South Korean stock market has shown strong performance this year, with the MSCI Korea Index up nearly 40% in USD terms, and a projected price-to-earnings ratio of around 10 to 10.5 times, slightly above historical averages [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of ongoing government reforms in South Korea, including real estate market cooling measures and capital market reforms, which are expected to benefit the stock market in the long term [5]. - The Indian stock market is highlighted as a key area of interest, particularly in the financial sector, with a recommendation for investors to focus on value stocks and high-yield equities [2][6]. Summary by Sections South Korean Market Performance - The South Korean stock market has rebounded with a 15% increase compared to last year's decline of 25%, supported by strong buying from pension funds and corporate buybacks [4]. - The report notes that the market's resilience is bolstered by ongoing reforms, although foreign investor activity may introduce volatility [4][24]. Government Reforms and Policies - The South Korean government is actively pursuing reforms aimed at cooling the real estate market and enhancing capital market regulations, which are expected to be resolved in the near term [5]. - Proposed reforms include updates to the Commercial Code and potential changes to dividend tax policies, which could further stimulate market growth [5]. Sector Focus - The report identifies financial stocks and high-yield equities as sectors with significant upside potential, particularly those offering dividend yields between 25% and 35% [6][7]. - The banking and financial sector has been upgraded to overweight due to anticipated benefits from ongoing reforms and pricing power [7]. Trade Relations and Tariff Issues - Ongoing trade negotiations between South Korea and the United States are critical, with potential tariff increases posing risks to the market if agreements are not reached [8][9]. - The report indicates that the U.S. has specific demands from South Korea, including the opening of agricultural markets and easing of data regulations, which could impact trade dynamics [12][13]. Economic Indicators and Inflation - Recent inflation data from India shows a CPI of 2.1%, prompting discussions on potential interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India [17]. - The report also highlights the challenges facing China's economy, including demand weakness and export declines, which may affect broader market sentiment in emerging markets [20][21].