Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View The fundamentals of the aluminum industry are neutral due to carbon - neutral policies controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market. The basis shows a premium over futures, which is bullish. The inventory situation is neutral, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average with an upward - sloping 20 - day moving average, also bullish. The main positions are net long but decreasing. In the long - term, carbon - neutral policies will drive changes in the aluminum industry and be bullish for aluminum prices. Overall, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors, aluminum prices will fluctuate [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content Daily View - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral considering carbon - neutral policies, weak demand, and a soft real - estate market [2]. - The basis is 200, with the spot price at 20710, showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [2]. - The SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 5625 tons to 108822 tons last week, a neutral factor [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - The main positions are net long, but the long positions are decreasing, also bullish [2]. - In the long - term, carbon - neutral policies will drive changes in the aluminum industry and be bullish for aluminum prices. With a mix of bullish and bearish factors, aluminum prices will fluctuate [2]. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish factors: Carbon - neutral policies control capacity expansion; geopolitical issues between Russia and Ukraine affect Russian aluminum supply; interest rate cuts [3]. - Bearish factors: The global economy is not optimistic, and high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the export tax rebate for aluminum products has been cancelled [3]. - Logic: There is a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand [3]. Daily Summary - Spot prices: The Shanghai spot price was 70770, down 375; the South China spot price was 70690, down 450; the Yangtze River spot price was 70870, down 400 [4]. - Inventory: The SHFE warehouse receipt inventory was 70798 tons, an increase of 699 tons; the LME inventory was 74750 tons, a decrease of 425 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance of aluminum in China from 2018 - 2024 shows that there were supply shortages in most years, except for a small surplus in 2020 and 2024. For example, in 2018, the supply - demand balance was - 47.61 million tons; in 2020, it was 1.3 million tons; in 2024, it is expected to be 15 million tons [24].
大越期货沪铝早报-20250721
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-21 02:17