大越期货尿素早报-20250721

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Report Date: July 21, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand in China, with the second - batch export quota falling short of expectations, although international urea prices remain strong. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. - The main influencing factors include the strong international price and the marginal changes in domestic demand. The main risk lies in changes in export policies [5]. Group 4: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The urea futures market has been oscillating recently. International prices are strong, but the second - batch domestic export quota of 120,000 tons is significantly lower than the first - batch of 200,000 tons. Domestic supply, in terms of daily production and operating rate, remains at a high level, and inventory has increased again. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand has continued to decline, and agricultural demand has weakened again. The overall supply of domestic urea far exceeds demand, and export policies have not been relaxed beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1730 (-30), indicating a generally bearish fundamental situation [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2509 contract is - 15, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.9%, which is bearish [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.24 million tons (+55,000), which is bearish [4]. - Futures Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral situation [4]. - Main Positions: The net long positions of the UR main contract have increased, which is bullish [4]. - Expectations: The main contract of urea is oscillating. With strong international prices and an under - expected export quota, the overall domestic supply far exceeds demand. It is expected that UR will fluctuate today [4]. Spot and Futures Market Conditions | Region/Contract | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1730 | - 20 | | Shandong Spot | 1740 | - 10 | | Henan Spot | 1730 | 0 | | FOB China | 2586 | - | | UR01 | 1720 | 0 | | UR05 | 1731 | 0 | | UR09 | 1745 | 0 | | Basis (UR09) | - 15 | - 20 | | Warehouse Receipt | 2523 | 0 | | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 1.24 million tons | - | | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 1.035 million tons | - | | UR Port Inventory | 0.205 million tons | - | [6] Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 million tons | - | 19.5681 million tons | 4.4838 million tons | 18.6% | 24.0519 million tons | 0.2366 million tons | 24.0519 million tons | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 million tons | 8.9% | 22.4 million tons | 4.8794 million tons | 17.9% | 27.2794 million tons | 0.3786 million tons | 27.1374 million tons | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 million tons | 15.5% | 25.8098 million tons | 6.1912 million tons | 19.3% | 32.001 million tons | 0.3783 million tons | 32.0013 million tons | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 million tons | 11.4% | 29.2799 million tons | 3.5241 million tons | 10.7% | 32.804 million tons | 0.3572 million tons | 32.8251 million tons | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 million tons | 8.4% | 29.6546 million tons | 3.3537 million tons | 10.2% | 33.0083 million tons | 0.4462 million tons | 32.9193 million tons | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 million tons | 14.1% | 31.9359 million tons | 2.9313 million tons | 8.4% | 34.8672 million tons | 0.4465 million tons | 34.8669 million tons | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 million tons | 13.5% | 34.25 million tons | 3.6 million tons | 9.5% | 37.85 million tons | 0.514 million tons | 37.7825 million tons | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 million tons | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10]