大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250721

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: In the short - term, PTA's driving force is expected to be weak, and its price will fluctuate following costs. Pay attention to the progress of new PTA device production and the fluctuation of downstream polyester load [5]. - MEG: In the short - term, the price center of ethylene glycol is expected to move upward. In the future, focus on the power system recovery in Saudi Arabia. In a pessimistic scenario, the supply of ocean - going cargo will continue to shrink [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant content found 3.2 Daily Tips - PTA: On Friday, sporadic polyester factories made bids. The July cargo was traded around 09 + 2532, with the price negotiation range around 47354830. The current mainstream spot basis is 09 + 29. The PTA plant inventory is 3.86 days, with no change from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [5][6]. - MEG: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated at a high level, and the market negotiation was fair. The port arrivals of ethylene glycol were limited in the middle of the month, and the visible inventory is expected to decline at the beginning of this week. From the fundamental perspective, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol will turn to a tight balance in July - August, which is significantly better than the previous market expectation. The current inventory in East China is 49.40 tons, an increase of 1.37 tons from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [7][8]. 3.3 Today's Focus - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Pay attention to the cost side, and after the market rebounds, pay attention to the upper resistance level [10]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It details the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the total operating rate, production, supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. - Price: It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers from July 17 to July 18, 2025, as well as the changes in processing fees and profits [13]. - Inventory Analysis: It presents the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester fibers over the years [41][43][50]. - Polyester Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rates: It shows the start - up rates of PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms over the years [52][54][56] - Profit Analysis: It includes the processing fees of PTA, the production profits of MEG from different production methods, and the production profits of polyester fibers [60][63][65]