大越期货沪铜早报-20250721

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, also neutral. The inventory has increased, with the copper inventory on July 18 rising by 25 to 122,175 tons and the SHFE copper inventory increasing by 3,094 tons to 84,556 tons last week, which is neutral. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average trending downward, suggesting a bearish signal. The main positions are net long and the long positions are increasing, which is bullish. Considering factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's rate - cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust. [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Neutral, with smelting enterprise production cuts, relaxed scrap copper policy, and stable manufacturing PMI at 49.5% in June [3] - Basis: Neutral, with a spot price of 78,635 and a basis of 225, indicating a premium of the spot over the futures [3] - Inventory: Neutral, with an increase in copper inventory on July 18 and an increase in SHFE copper inventory last week [3] - Disk: Bearish, as the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is trending downward [3] - Main positions: Bullish, with net long main positions and an increase in long positions [3] - Expectation: Copper prices will fluctuate and adjust due to factors like the slowdown of the Fed's rate - cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak off - season consumption [3] Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific利多 and利空 factors are not elaborated [4] Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight balance [21] - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows details of production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 - 2024 [23] Other Information - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [15] - The processing fee has declined [17]