沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250721

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - 沪镍: Last week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, with general spot trading and downstream demand mainly for immediate needs. In the industrial chain, ore prices declined slightly, freight rates remained firm due to insufficient capacity, and ferronickel prices were weak, leading to a downward shift in the cost line. Stainless steel is in the traditional off - season in July and August, with still poor demand, but inventory decreased slightly this week. New energy vehicle production and sales data are good, which is beneficial for nickel demand. The medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The contract 沪镍2508 will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - 不锈钢: Spot stainless steel prices rose. In the short term, nickel ore prices declined slightly, freight rates were firm, and ferronickel prices were weak, so the cost line may continue to shift downward. Stainless steel consumption has entered the off - season. The contract 不锈钢2509 will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel Price and Inventory - Price: On July 18, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,500 yuan, up 1,050 yuan from July 17; the price of 1金川 nickel was 122,450 yuan, up 950 yuan; the price of 1 imported nickel was 120,800 yuan, up 1,000 yuan; the price of nickel beans was 120,000 yuan, up 1,000 yuan. The price of 沪镍主力 was 120,500 yuan, up 620 yuan; the price of 伦镍电 was 15,245 dollars, up 180 dollars [11]. - Inventory: As of July 18, the LME nickel inventory was 207,576 tons, an increase of 294 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 21,560 tons, an increase of 602 tons. The total inventory was 229,136 tons, an increase of 896 tons [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Inventory - Price: On July 18, the average price of stainless steel was 13,500 yuan, up 100 yuan from July 17. The price of 不锈钢主力 was 12,725 yuan, down 5 yuan [11]. - Inventory: On July 18, the inventory in Wuxi was 62,470 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 340,300 tons, and the national inventory was 1,147,800 tons, a decrease of 197,000 tons from the previous period. The 300 - series inventory was 687,500 tons, a decrease of 74,000 tons. The stainless steel futures warehouse receipts were 103,599 tons, a decrease of 6,973 tons [18][19]. Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Price - Nickel Ore: On July 18, the price of red earth nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 58.5 dollars per wet ton, unchanged from July 17; the price of red earth nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 30 dollars per wet ton, unchanged. The freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 11.5 dollars per ton, unchanged; the freight from the Philippines to Tianjin Port was 12.5 dollars per ton, unchanged [22]. - Ferronickel: On July 18, the price of high - nickel ferronickel (8 - 12) was 900 yuan per nickel point, unchanged from July 17; the price of low - nickel ferronickel (below 2) was 3,200 yuan per ton, unchanged [22]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - On July 18, the traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,689 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel was 13,308 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel ferronickel + pure nickel was 16,463 yuan [24]. Factors Affecting Nickel and Stainless Steel - Likely Positive Factors: Good production and sales data of new energy vehicles in June and the anti - involution policy [6]. - Likely Negative Factors: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production, no new growth points in demand, and a long - term oversupply pattern; stainless steel warehouse receipts flowing into the spot market, increasing supply pressure; the loosening of ore prices and the stable - to - decreasing ferronickel prices, leading to a downward shift in the cost line [6].