大越期货纯碱早报-20250721

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand. Although the "Anti - involution" policy continuously boosts market sentiment, in the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1216 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1200 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 16 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot. The closing price decreased by 0.73%, the low - end price in Shahe dropped by 0.83%, and the basis increased by 6.67% [6]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market 3.2.1 Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 135.20 yuan/ton, and that of the East China joint - soda process is - 95.50 yuan/ton, at the lowest level in the same period in history [15]. 3.2.2 Operating Rate, Production Capacity and Output - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 84.10%, and the expected operating rate will decline seasonally. The weekly output of soda ash is 73.32 tons, including 41.47 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [18][20]. 3.2.3 Changes in Production Capacity - In 2023, the newly - added production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; and the planned newly - added production capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with 100 tons actually put into production [21]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Demand 3.3.1 Sales - to - Production Ratio - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 94.24% [24]. 3.3.2 Downstream Demand - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.78 tons, and the operating rate is 75.63% and remains stable. The price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Affected by the "Anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume in production has decreased significantly [27][30]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national soda ash factories is 190.56 tons, an increase of 2.26% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [32]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [33]. 3.6 Influencing Factors 3.6.1 Bullish Factors - The "Anti - involution" policy boosts market sentiment [3]. 3.6.2 Bearish Factors - The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. Risk points include the unexpected low cold - repair of downstream float and photovoltaic glass and unexpected macro - level benefits [4].