Report Overview - Report Date: July 21, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei -从业资格号: F0283029 - Investment Consulting Number: Z0010442 - Contact Information: TEL: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports the increase in biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month - on - month. Subsequently, it will enter the production - increasing season, and the supply of palm oil will increase [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8414, with a basis of 254, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year - on - year [2] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [2] - Main Position: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7950 - 8350 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report data is the same, and the subsequent supply is expected to increase [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9048, with a basis of 84, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3] - Inventory: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year - on - year [3] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [3] - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8850 - 9250 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report data is the same as above, and the subsequent supply is expected to increase [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9691, with a basis of 105, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year - on - year [4] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9250 - 9650 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish Factors: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - Bearish Factors: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5] Supply - Related - Imported Soybean Inventory: Mentioned but no specific data provided [6] - Soybean Oil Inventory: Data on July 4 shows a commercial inventory of 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year - on - year [2] - Palm Oil Inventory: On July 4, the port inventory was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year - on - year [3] - Rapeseed Oil Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year - on - year [4] - Rapeseed Inventory: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025, but no specific value mentioned [21][22] - Domestic Total Oil and Fat Inventory: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025, but no specific value mentioned [23][24] Demand - Related - Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025, but no specific value mentioned [13][14] - Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025, but no specific value mentioned [15][16]
大越期货油脂早报-20250721
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-21 02:09